2025-06-17-高盛-中国烈酒追踪_在518区域政策推出后价格下跌的情况下_茅台启动渠道行动以支持批发价格_12页_697kb

Summary of China Spirits Tracker: Moutai Initiates Channel Actions to Support Wholesale Price Amid Lower Prices Post 518 Regional Policy Roll-Out

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the China spirits sector, focusing on Moutai's recent actions to stabilize wholesale prices in response to policy tightening and a decline in liquor consumption sentiment. It includes data on wholesale price movements, channel policy changes, valuation metrics, and key risks across major spirits companies.

Main Points

Wholesale Price Trends (Jun 8 to Jun 15, 2025)

• Moutai Original Case Feitian Moutai: Wholesale price per bottle decreased by Rmb125, from Rmb2,115 to Rmb1,990.
• Moutai Unpacked Feitian Moutai: Wholesale price per bottle decreased by Rmb70, from Rmb2,030 to Rmb1,960.
• Moutai Non-Standard SKUs:
  • Zodiac Moutai: Down Rmb120 per bottle.
  • Jingpin Moutai: Down Rmb40 per bottle.
  • Moutai 15 years: Down Rmb130 per bottle.
  • 1-litre Feitian Moutai: Down Rmb100 per bottle.
• Common Wuliangye: Wholesale price per bottle remained flat at Rmb950, but declined in weaker regions by Rmb7–8 to Rmb890–905.
• Guojiao 1573: Wholesale price per bottle remained flat at Rmb845.

Moutai's Channel Actions (Jun 16, 2025)

• Shipment Control: Moutai has requested distributors to control the shipment pace of 53% Feitian Moutai.
• Restrictions on Distribution: Distributors are not allowed to ship to wholesale markets, supermarkets, online retailers, or regions outside their coverage.
• Penalties for Price Dumping: Distributors selling Feitian Moutai below RMB2,000/bottle may face contract termination or distribution quota suspension. Selling below RMB2,100/bottle may result in penalties including distribution suspension and admonishments.
• Comparison with Previous Actions (June 2024): Moutai implemented similar measures, including suspension of direct sales to enterprise group-buy channels and control of distributor shipment quotas. It also suspended non-standard SKUs such as 375ml Feitian Moutai on the Xunfeng platform and 15-Year and Jingpin Moutai.

Market and Policy Impact

• Policy Headwinds: The recent regional policy roll-out (518) and close inspection of civil servants' activities have led to lower prices and weaker demand.
• Investor Concerns: Uncertainty about the duration of the close inspection remains a key concern for investors.
• State Media Emphasis: State media re-emphasized the importance of anti-extravagance regulations on Jun 16, highlighting ongoing policy focus.

Stock Performance

• Golden Seed (-1%) was a relatively better performer among China Spirits last week.

Key Viewpoints

• Moutai is actively taking measures to stabilize wholesale prices and support distributor confidence amid policy headwinds.
• The ongoing policy environment poses a demand shock risk, especially in N-T (non-tobacco) sectors.
• The uncertainty around policy duration is a critical factor for investment decisions.
• Common Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 have shown mixed price trends, with some regions experiencing price declines.

Key Information

Valuation Summary (as of Jun 13, 2025)

Key Risks and Upsides

• Key Risks:

  • Moutai: Potential regulation changes, environmental pollution, slower macroeconomic recovery, capacity constraints, and US rate volatility.
  • Common Wuliangye: Consumption tax reform, threats from Moutai-flavor brands, and intensified competition.
  • ZJLD: Regulations risks, competition, macroeconomic uncertainties, environmental risks, and potential conflicts of interest.
  • Jiangsu Yanghe: Higher competition, weaker distributor confidence, and channel inventory issues.
  • Jiugui Liquor: Lower than expected performance, and potential regulatory impacts.
  • Sichuan Swellfun: Intensified competition, slower demand recovery.

• Upsides:

  • Moutai: Strong management execution, product innovation, and potential price support.
  • Common Wuliangye: Better-than-expected channel inventory and product performance.
  • ZJLD: Improved product launch, market penetration, and inventory digestion.
  • Jiangsu King's Luck: Better competitive landscape and management execution.
  • Jiangsu Yanghe: Stronger policy stimulus execution and improved performance outside Jiangsu.

Valuation Methodology

• Valuation is based on forward-looking metrics such as P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA, and normalized ranks.
• Integrated Percentile combines Growth, Financial Returns, and Multiple.

M&A Rank

• M&A rank is assigned from 1 (high probability of acquisition) to 3 (low probability).
• Companies ranked 1 or 2 have M&A components included in their price targets.

Quantum Database

• Goldman Sachs uses Quantum, a proprietary database, for detailed financial analysis and comparison.

Regulatory Disclosures

• All ratings and analysis reflect personal views of the analysts.
• Analysts are prohibited from owning securities of companies in their coverage.
• Investment Banking Relationships are disclosed, with 63% of rated companies having investment banking services in the last 12 months.

Conclusion

Moutai is actively implementing channel control measures to support wholesale prices and distributor confidence. The policy environment remains a key challenge, but Moutai's actions are seen as supportive in the short term. Other spirits companies, such as Common Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, show mixed performance, with price declines in certain regions. The valuation metrics and investment ratings reflect market expectations and potential risks, with Moutai and Common Wuliangye generally viewed as positive prospects, while Jiangsu Yanghe and Jiugui Liquor face downside risks.