国际天然气联盟-2021年全球天然气批发价格调查（英）-2021_75页_5mb

Summary of the 2021 IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey

Core Content

The 2021 edition of the IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey provides an overview of global gas price formation mechanisms and wholesale gas price trends from 2005 to 2020. It highlights the evolution of pricing models across different regions and markets, focusing on the increasing dominance of Gas-on-Gas Competition (GOG) and the decline of Oil Price Escalation (OPE). The survey covers 94 country-level markets, representing 98% of global gas consumption, and includes detailed analysis of domestic production, pipeline imports, LNG imports, total imports, and total consumption.

Main Viewpoints

Price Formation Mechanisms

• Gas-on-Gas Competition (GOG): The most prevalent mechanism, accounting for 49.3% of global gas consumption in 2020.
• Oil Price Escalation (OPE): The second most common mechanism, but its share has declined from 24.4% in 2005 to 18.6% in 2020.
• Bilateral Monopoly (BIM): A smaller but notable mechanism, with a share of 10% in pipeline imports.
• Regulated Pricing:
  • Regulation: Cost of Service (RCS): Dominates in some regions and has seen an increase in share.
  • Regulation: Social and Political (RSP): Seen in the Middle East and Latin America.
  • Regulation: Below Cost (RBC): Seen in the Middle East and Latin America, but has declined.
• Netback from Final Product (NET): Seen in Asia Pacific and other regions.
• No Price (NP) and Not Known (NK): Less common and reflect specific market conditions or lack of data.

Market Trends

• GOG Growth: The rise of GOG is attributed to increased LNG imports and the liberalization of gas markets in various regions.
• OPE Decline: OPE has declined due to the shift towards more market-based pricing and the impact of oil price volatility.
• Wholesale Price Trends:
  • Prices declined in 2020 due to oversupply and the impact of the pandemic.
  • The global average spot LNG price reached $3.24 per MMBTU, the lowest since 2005.
  • Asia and Asia Pacific prices remained relatively stable compared to Europe, which saw sharper declines.

Regional Analysis

• Asia and Asia Pacific: The largest consumers of LNG, with significant GOG and OPE shares.
• Europe: Shifted from OPE to GOG, especially in Northwest and Central Europe, with OPE now accounting for only 19% of pipeline imports.
• North America: Dominated by GOG, with 70% of domestic production under GOG.
• Latin America and Former Soviet Union: Experienced changes in pricing mechanisms, including shifts from regulated to market-based models.
• Africa and Middle East: Continued to use regulated pricing, with some movement towards OPE and GOG.

Key Information

• The survey covers 113 markets, with 94 markets providing responses in 2020.
• GOG is the most significant price formation mechanism, with a 1 percentage point increase from 2019 to 2020.
• OPE has declined, but has seen some growth in specific regions like Asia due to increased production.
• LNG imports have become a major driver of GOG growth, with spot LNG cargoes playing a key role.
• The price convergence trend has been observed globally, though it has slowed since 2015.
• The regulatory changes in various regions, such as Russia, Argentina, and Nigeria, have contributed to the shift from regulated to market-based pricing.

Report Structure

• Section 1: Executive Summary
• Section 2: Introduction
  • Background
  • Types of price formation mechanisms
  • Analyzing the results
  • Report layout
• Section 3: World Results
  • Domestic Production
  • Pipeline Imports
  • LNG Imports
  • Total Imports
  • Total Consumption
  • Analysis of gas-on-gas competition and oil price escalation
• Section 4: Wholesale Price Levels
  • 2020 survey results
  • Comparisons from 2005 to 2020
• Section 5: Global Gas Price Convergence
• Section 6: Key Changes from 2005 to 2020
• Appendix A: Regional level results
• Appendix B: Survey Methodology

Conclusion

The report underscores the transformation of global gas markets towards more market-based pricing models, particularly GOG, with a notable shift away from regulated pricing mechanisms. It highlights the impact of the pandemic on gas prices, the role of LNG in this transition, and the regional variations in price formation. The findings provide a comprehensive view of the evolving dynamics of the global gas market and the implications for future trends.