20160907-群益证券-Daily_Commentary_12页_937kb

报告摘要

Daily Commentary Summary - Sep 07, 2016

Core Content Overview

This summary provides an analysis of the financial and market conditions of the Taiwan stock market, key companies, and related financial indicators. It includes updates on freight rates, institutional trading, currency exchange rates, and specific company performance, particularly focusing on Syncmold (1582 TT).

Market Information

Taiwan Stock Market (TAIEX):
- Last Price: 9,181.85
- %Chg: 1.01
TPEX:
- Last Price: 129.94
- %Chg: 0.6
Turnover (NTD bn): 99
Market Cap (NTD bn): 29,944.6
%Chg in Market Cap: 0.97

Institutional Trading

FINI Net: 9.4 NTD bn
Local Funds Net: 0.0 NTD bn
Local Dealers – Proprietary: 0.1 NTD bn
Local Dealers – Hedge: -1.2 NTD bn

ADR (USD)

TSMC: Last Price 29.49, %Chg 1.20
UMC: Last Price 1.89, %Chg 1.07
ASX: Last Price 6.10, %Chg 1.16
SPIL: Last Price 7.47, %Chg 2.05
AUO: Last Price 3.85, %Chg 3.22
CHT: Last Price 36.59, %Chg 1.22
HIMX: Last Price 10.06, %Chg -4.28

HKEx (HKD)

FIH: Last Price 2.66, %Chg 0.38
YUE YUEN: Last Price 34.40, %Chg -2.82
TINGYI: Last Price 8.35, %Chg 2.83
YORKEY: Last Price 0.99, %Chg 2.06
TPV: Last Price 1.56, %Chg 1.96

Currency Rates (USD)

NTD: Last Price 31.41, %Chg -0.30
JPY: Last Price 103.35, %Chg -0.01
RMB: Last Price 6.68, %Chg 0.08

Key Events and Comments

1. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)

SCFI reached 763.06 pts on Sep 02, 2016, with a 27.9% increase from the previous week.
America East Coast rate: USD2,441/FEU (+45% WoW)
America West Coast rate: USD1,746/FEU (+51.4% WoW)
Asia-Europe rate: USD949/TEU (+36.5% WoW)
Commentary:
- Hanjin Shipping filed for bankruptcy protection, which may lead to a reduction in supply and potentially boost freight rates.
- The bankruptcy may benefit the America routes the most due to higher market share and overlapping long-haul routes.
- With the peak season in 3Q16, freight rates are expected to rise in September 2016.
- Investment recommendation: Focus on shipping names with relatively low valuations. Maintain BUY on Evergreen Marine (2603 TT) and Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT).

2. Formosa Plastics Group (FPG)

Only Nan Ya Plastics (1303 TT) reported an increase in revenue for August 2016.
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT), Formosa Plastics (1301 TT), and Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT) all saw revenue declines.
Commentary:
- Demand and supply for SM and PVC are still expected to outperform in 2016.
- India's demand and China's raw material price hikes support the performance of SM and PVC.
- The calcium carbide method price hike for PVC has decelerated.
- After the G20 production restriction is lifted, SM prices may be bolstered by inventory replenishment.
- Maintain BUY on Grand Pacific Petrochemical (1312 TT) with a target price of NTD18.5.

3. Syncmold (1582 TT)

Recommendation: BUY with a target price of NTD61.
Key Takeaways:
- FY17 Revenue Estimate: NTD9.586bn (+3.5% YoY)
- FY17 Net Profit Estimate: NTD783mn (+3.2% YoY)
- CB-diluted EPS Estimate: NTD4.75
- Reason for Buy Recommendation: Stable earnings and high cash dividend payout ratio.
Revenue Breakdown:
- 3Q16 Revenue Estimate: NTD2.547bn (+10.1% QoQ)
- 3Q16 Net Profit Estimate: NTD208mn (+1.9% QoQ)
- EPS Estimate: NTD1.39
Product Mix:
- LCD monitor hinge/stand accounts for ~90% of Syncmold's revenue.
- Global market share: ~28% for LCD monitor hinge/stand.
- TV hinge/stand revenue is expected to fall by 19.2% YoY, but may recover in FY17.
- AIO PC hinge/stand revenue is estimated to increase by 4.8% YoY.
Other Revenue Contributions:
- Social welfare lottery machines in China have low revenue contribution.
- Plant consolidation in FY16 may increase expenses, but benefits are expected to be realized from 4Q16 onwards.

Financial Metrics

Balance Sheet (NTD mn)

Assets: 8,225 (2013), 9,872 (2014), 9,348 (2015), 9,889 (2016F), 10,094 (2017F)
Current Assets: 6,810 (2013), 8,423 (2014), 7,938 (2015), 8,230 (2016F), 8,424 (2017F)
Cash & Cash Equivalents: 1,881 (2015), 2,945 (2016F), 3,017 (2017F)
Liabilities: 3,303 (2013), 4,308 (2014), 3,742 (2015), 4,199 (2016F), 4,296 (2017F)
Shareholders' Equity: 4,921 (2013), 5,564 (2014), 5,606 (2015), 5,689 (2016F), 5,798 (2017F)
Paid-in Capital: 1,499 (NTD mn)

Income Statement (NTD mn)

Revenue: 9,072 (2013), 10,063 (2014), 9,466 (2015), 9,266 (2016F), 9,586 (2017F)
Net Profit: 655 (2013), 856 (2014), 791 (2015), 758 (2016F), 783 (2017F)
EPS (Basic): 4.37 (2013), 5.71 (2014), 5.28 (2015), 5.06 (2016F), 5.22 (2017F)
Diluted EPS: 3.98 (2013), 5.20 (2014), 4.80 (2015), 4.60 (2016F), 4.75 (2017F)

Ratio Analysis

Gross Margin: 22.04% (2013), 22.84% (2014), 22.45% (2015), 22.76% (2016F), 23.07% (2017F)
Operating Margin: 10.91% (2013), 11.92% (2014), 11.32% (2015), 11.70% (2016F), 12.25% (2017F)
Net Margin: 7.22% (2013), 8.51% (2014), 8.35% (2015), 8.18% (2016F), 8.17% (2017F)
Debt Ratio: 40.16% (2013), 43.64% (2014), 40.03% (2015), 42.47% (2016F), 42.56% (2017F)
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 67.12% (2013), 77.43% (2014), 66.76% (2015), 73.81% (2016F), 74.10% (2017F)
Current Ratio: 234.09% (2013), 215.58% (2014), 306.80% (2015), 301.65% (2016F), 302.86% (2017F)

Key Takeaways

Syncmold's revenue is primarily driven by LCD monitor hinge/stand, which contributes ~90%.
The 3Q16 revenue is expected to grow by 10.1% QoQ due to increased shipments.
FY16 revenue for LCD monitor hinge/stand is estimated to rise by 2.8% YoY.
TV hinge/stand revenue is expected to fall by 19.2% YoY but may recover in FY17.
AIO PC hinge/stand revenue is estimated to increase by 4.8% YoY.
The social welfare lottery machines project has low revenue contribution.
Plant consolidation may increase FY16 expenses but will bring benefits from 4Q16 onwards.
Syncmold's EPS is estimated at NTD5.22 for FY17, with a target price of NTD61.
Financial ratios indicate stable earnings and a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio.