20140401-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_569kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary (01 Apr 2014)
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of the oil and gas market situation in Asia, including news headlines, price updates, and analyst reports for various companies across China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and others. It highlights market dynamics, production changes, and valuation comparisons.
Key News Headlines
- Southwest China's LNG supply to remain tight in April: Due to the shutdown of 1/3 of liquefaction capacity, including two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 1.15 mcm/d, the supply is expected to remain constrained.
- South China fuel oil imports to drop by 95.7% in March MoM: Mixed/cracked fuel oil imports from Singapore are projected to fall to 10,000 tonnes in March from 224,000 tonnes in February, indicating a significant decline in demand and pricing.
- Gasoil China-Singapore arbitrage window closed: China's gasoil prices dropped faster than Singapore's, resulting in a negative import margin of CNY104/tonne compared to a positive margin of CNY22/tonne in February.
- Saudi Aramco price cuts for propane and butane in April: Prices were trimmed by CNY85/tonne and CNY25/tonne respectively, with the butane cut being less than expected.
- CNOOC's deep-water Liwan project production ramp-up: Production is expected to increase from 250 MMcfd to 300 MMcfd in the second half of 2014, with potential for 400-500 MMcfd by 2016-2017.
- Russian oil company to boost Iraq's oil output: Lukoil is set to increase output at the West Qurna 2 oilfield in Iraq from 120k bbl/d to 400k bbl/d by end-2014, potentially raising Iraq's output to 4.0 mbpd in 2014.
- Bumi Armada receives LOI for Angola FPSO project: Eni Angola has awarded Bumi Armada its second E&P contract for an FPSO in West Africa, indicating continued collaboration.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (31 Mar 2014)
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Absolute Change | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 101.41 | -0.26 | -0.3% | 1.8% | -0.5% |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 107.76 | -0.31 | -0.3% | 0.9% | -0.8% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/barrel | 104.63 | -0.17 | -0.2% | 1.3% | -0.6% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/barrel | 106.17 | -0.21 | -0.2% | 1.1% | -2.5% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.37 | -0.00 | -2.6% | 2.2% | -4.0% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/barrel | 116.67 | -0.05 | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/gallon | 122.61 | -0.29 | -0.2% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 608.13 | -0.25 | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.1% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,284.86 | -10.37 | -0.8% | -1.8% | -3.1% |
| USD-JPY | USDJPY CURNCY | Fx rate | 103.21 | +0.38 | +0.4% | +0.9% | +1.4% |
| USD-EUR | USDEUR CURNCY | Fx rate | 0.73 | -0.00 | -0.2% | +0.5% | +0.2% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.22 | +0.00 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,457.66 | +134.60 | +0.8% | +1.1% | +0.8% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,872.34 | +14.72 | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% |
| 30Y T-Bill | USGG30YR INDEX | Yield | 3.56 | +0.01 | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
Our Latest Reports
- Bumi Armada (BAD MK): Bags Eni's LOI for Angola's FPSO job. Target Price: MYR5.00. A bare-boat charter worth USD2.9b over 12 years, projected to hit 1st oil by Oct 2016. Conversion works to take 31 months, with MYR5.30 capex plan. Maintain BUY with MYR5.00 as target price.
- Petron Corp (PCOR PM): 2015 view remains positive. Target Price: PHP15.90. FY13 reported profit up 187% to PHP5.1b, but short of estimates. Full commercial operations of RMP-2 by 2015 on track. Maintain BUY with PHP15.90 as target price.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum (SAKP MK): Results within range. Target Price: MYR5.30. FY14 results meet expectations. Newfield Malaysia will drive earnings with +MYR116m in FY15 and +MYR447m in FY16. Maintain BUY with MYR5.30 as target price.
- Ezion Holdings (EZI SP): Sea of opportunities. Target Price: SGD2.90. Listing of Gulf Marine Services reinforces valuation attractiveness. Reiterate BUY with SGD2.90 as target price. Liftboat market remains underpenetrated in Southeast Asia, and new entrants may boost adoption rate.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (31 Mar) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | P/E (2013E) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.45 | NR | 220.9 | 94.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.94 | NR | 96.5 | 113.5 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 11.66 | NR | 67.1 | 117.1 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 17.3 | 1.2 | 4.9 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 318.70 | NR | 45.5 | 18.0 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 930.75 | NR | 50.2 | 50.1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 333.00 | 443.00 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 460.05 | NR | 5.6 | 8.9 | 17.7 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 309.80 | NR | 1.8 | 5.8 | 20.9 | 9.13 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| INTEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,339.00 | NR | 19.0 | 58.4 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAPEX | 1662 JT | NR | 3,435.00 | NR | 1.9 | 9.5 | n.a. | 8.2 | 7.0 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 497.00 | NR | 12.0 | 67.0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 922.00 | NR | 3.4 | 16.3 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 21.9 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| TenonGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 911.00 | NR | 5.0 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 28.8 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,119.00 | NR | 3.3 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 187.00 | NR | 1.5 | 6.8 | n.a. | 26.2 | 10.4 | 13.5 | -31.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 23.80 | 20.20 | 14.4 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 28.3 | 18.1 | 15.4 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | hold | 3.72 | 3.90 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 27.9 | 24.3 | 17.7 | 14.9 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 11.74 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 21.7 | 14.7 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 5.00 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 72.25 | 87.00 | 10.1 | 25.9 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 14.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 299.00 | 395.00 | 26.4 | 34.5 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 14.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 53.00 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 83,500 | 103,000.00 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 40.8 | 4.7 | 6.8 |
Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (31 Mar) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | P/E (2013E) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 4.93 | NR | 1.4 | 11.6 | 22.0 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 18.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 18.20 | NR | 12.5 | 34.8 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 17.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.23 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.2 | 11.6 | 20.4 | 15.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.26 | NR | 0.9 | 4.8 | 16.3 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 17.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.91 | NR | 0.8 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 13.4 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.40 | NR | 4.8 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 18.1 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 3.83 | NR | 0.8 | 4.8 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.91 | 5.00 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 26.6 | 24.3 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | buy | 1.48 | 1.85 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 17.4 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 27.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.59 | 3.90 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 44.5 | 30.4 | 28.6 | 26.9 | 15.2 | 6.4 | 0.9 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | buy | 3.76 | 4.20 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 25.4 | 34.5 | 18.3 | 21.2 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
Analysts
- Howard Wong - HK/CHINA
- Liaw Thong Jung - MALAYSIA
- Jigar Shah - INDIA
- Yeast Chee Keong - SINGAPORE
- Sutthichai Kumworachai - THAILAND
- Pandu Anugrah - INDONESIA
- Laura Dy-Liacco - PHILIPPINES
- Bianca Solema - PHILIPPINES
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen - VIETNAM
- Truong Quang Binh - VIETNAM
Note: The data in this summary is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank Kim Eng, and includes market valuations and forecasts. All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus. The average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
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