20140708-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_13页_577kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 07 July 2014
Core Content Overview
The document provides a summary of the regional oil and gas market on 07 July 2014, including price movements, key news headlines, and analyst reports on various companies in the sector. It also includes a valuation comparison table for Asian oil and gas companies.
Key Price Movements
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Down by 4.1% to $4.23/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of -0.18.
- Brent Crude Oil: Down by 0.7% to $110.24/bbl, with a 1-day change of -0.76.
- WTI Crude Oil: Down by 0.5% to $103.53/bbl, with a 1-day change of -0.53.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: No change in price at $12.15/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of 0.00.
- Other Commodities:
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Down by 0.1% to $107.48/bbl.
- China Daqing Spot: Down by 0.2% to $108.63/bbl.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down by 0.2% to $121.96/bbl.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down by 0.1% to $121.31/bbl.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down by 0.3% to $609.41/mt.
- Gold: No change in price at $1,319.94/Oz.
- USD-CNY: No change at 6.20.
- DJI: Down by 0.3% to 17,024.21.
- S&P 500: Down by 0.4% to 1,977.65.
News Headlines
- Libya set to restart eastern port exports: The government is planning to reopen exports at its major eastern port after a rebel group took control for almost a year.
- PetroChina lowers July jet kerosene price by CNY12/tonne: The company reduced its offering price for July jet kerosene to CNY6,943/tonne for military supplies and by CNY90/tonne at the ex-refinery level.
- Fitch expects global CPO price to rise modestly in 2014: Despite the El Nino weather pattern, Fitch anticipates a modest increase in global crude palm oil prices.
- Japan May plastic feedstock production down 6.5% YoY: Japan's plastic feedstock production fell by 6.5% YoY in May to 780,300 tonnes, but plastic product production rose by 1.3% YoY to 435,200 tonnes.
- China's Hengli New Energy to commence LNG plant late this year: The company is set to start operation at its 500Mcm/d liquefaction facility in Inner Mongolia.
- China Shipbuilding Corp. wins USD600m semi-submersible order: The company was awarded a USD600m order to build six semi-submersibles starting in 1Q16.
- Myanmar joins EITI: Myanmar was admitted as a candidate country to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.
- Centrica fails to find hydrocarbon at Butch South West prospect: The UK-based company did not find pay from its 8/10-6S probe at the Butch South West prospect.
Analyst Reports
China
- Sinopec: Maintained a HOLD rating with a target price of HKD6.85. Valuation appears stretched, and restructuring efforts are expected to take time.
- Yinson Holdings: Reiterated a BUY rating with a target price of MYR3.03. 1QFY1/15 results are tracking expectations.
- Petron Corp: Reiterated a BUY rating with a target price of PHP16.80. Full completion of RMP-2 is expected by end of the month, and full commercial operations by Dec 2014.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of MYR5.30. The company secured two EPCIC contracts worth a total of MYR1.3b.
- China Oil & Gas (initiation): Initiated with a NEUTRAL view. PetroChina and NewOcean Energy are recommended as BUY, while CNOOC and Sinopec are HOLD.
- CNOOC: Maintained a HOLD rating with a target price of HKD14.34. The company is struggling with the 'producer's curse' and faces challenges in FCF return.
- NewOcean Energy: Reiterated a BUY rating with a target price of HKD8.88. The company is expanding its auto LNG alliance in Guangdong.
India
- ONGC: No rating (NR) provided.
- Reliance Industries: No rating (NR) provided.
- Cairn India: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of MYR443.00. The company is expected to have a strong performance.
- BPCL: No rating (NR) provided.
- HPCL: No rating (NR) provided.
Japan
- INPEX: No rating (NR) provided.
- JAPEX: No rating (NR) provided.
- JX Holding: No rating (NR) provided.
- Showa Shell: No rating (NR) provided.
- TonenGeneral: No rating (NR) provided.
- Idemitsu: No rating (NR) provided.
- Cosmo: No rating (NR) provided.
Malaysia
- Gas Malaysia: Maintained a Hold rating with a target price of MYR3.80.
- Petronas Gas: Maintained a Hold rating with a target price of MYR23.50.
Philippines
- Petron Corp: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of PHP16.80.
- Phoenix Petroleum Philippines: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of PHP7.05.
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Gas: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of VND103,000.
Other Asian Companies
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of THB87.00.
- Thai Oil PCL: Maintained a Sell rating with a target price of THB65.00.
- Gazprom: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of RUB41.00.
- IRPC PCL: Maintained a Hold rating with a target price of THB3.74.
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 07-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % 2014E | P/B 2014E | Yield % 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 9.78 | 11.50 | 223.4 | 85.5 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.33 | 6.85 | 98.3 | 82.5 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.60 | 14.34 | 78.3 | 87.6 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 362.50 | 443.00 | 11.5 | 17.9 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 23.6 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| INPEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,521.00 | NR | 21.9 | 68.2 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| JAPEX | 1662 JT | NR | 4,115.00 | NR | 2.4 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 530.00 | NR | 13.0 | 47.3 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,141.00 | NR | 4.2 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| TonenGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 945.00 | NR | 5.3 | 15.6 | 37.0 | 20.4 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,205.00 | NR | 3.5 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 210.00 | NR | 1.8 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 593.25 | NR | 7.2 | 18.8 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 14.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 408.40 | NR | 2.3 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.66 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 6.50 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Analyst Contact Information
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Bianca Solema, (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com; Laura Dy-Liacco, (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeast Chee Keong, (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 $\times$ 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
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