20140407-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_572kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - April 7, 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of recent news and market analysis related to the oil and gas industry across various regions, including China, Malaysia, India, Singapore, and others. It includes updates on fuel consumption, price changes, corporate developments, and valuation data for major oil and gas companies.
Main News Highlights
-
China Fuel Consumption:
- Gasoline apparent consumption for January–February 2014 increased by 4.9% YoY, driven by increased car ownership and seasonal factors.
- Gasoil apparent consumption declined by 2.87% YoY, attributed to weak demand from infrastructure, industry, mining, and transportation sectors.
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Price Adjustments:
- Sinopec and PetroChina reduced jet kerosene prices by CNY90/tonne due to international price weakness.
- LPG prices in China fell as supply growth outpaced demand, with propane prices closing at CNY6,500/tonne in the Yangtze River Delta.
-
LNG Imports:
- Kunlun Energy, a subsidiary of PetroChina, imported 4.89mt of LNG in 2013, marking a 27% YoY increase from 2012’s 3.85mt.
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Operational Incident:
- An accident occurred during MMHE's topsides loading operation, but no damage to the facility was reported.
-
Strategic Moves:
- Gazprom decided to stop marketing to U.S. investors after the Crimea crisis, focusing instead on investors from the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia.
- Oriental Energy signed a 10-year LPG vessel charter with Pacific Gas, with an annual rental rate of USD15m per ship.
- ExxonMobil Chemical demonstrated the world's first crude-to-chemicals cracker in Singapore, offering a cost advantage over using naphtha as feedstock.
Latest Reports and Analysis
-
PETRONAS gives go-ahead for RAPID:
- Positive news expected to be well received by the market.
- Investment value is 20% below the original budget, but may change with development progress.
- Dialog is a major beneficiary, followed by other O&G groups and the construction and property sectors.
-
NewOcean Energy (342 HK):
- Target price: HKD8.88.
- Reiterate BUY rating; stock has pulled back 30% since its recent high.
- Revised 2015 earnings by 11%, while 2014 numbers remain unchanged.
- Trades at 8.0x 2014E earnings, below the target of 12.5x.
- Entry into Auto LNG is expected to prompt a long-term rerating.
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Bumi Armada (BAD MK):
- Bags Eni's LOI for Angola's FPSO job.
- Target price: MYR5.00.
- Maintain BUY rating and MYR5.00 target price.
- Projected to hit 1st oil by October 2016.
- Conversion works are expected to take 31 months and cost USD1.5b.
Oil & Gas Price and Indexes (April 4, 2014)
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Absolute Change | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 101.14 | 1.52 | 1.5% | -0.1% | -1.5% |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 106.72 | 1.93 | 1.8% | -1.0% | -2.0% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 103.32 | 1.05 | 1.0% | -0.4% | -2.4% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 104.84 | -1.33 | -1.3% | -0.4% | -3.0% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.44 | 0.00 | 1.7% | -2.2% | -3.1% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 115.84 | 2.36 | 2.1% | -0.8% | -3.3% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 121.78 | 1.08 | 0.9% | -0.3% | -2.0% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 600.92 | 5.40 | 0.9% | -1.1% | -1.8% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,303.50 | 13.60 | 1.1% | 0.9% | -2.3% |
| USD-JPY | USDJPY CURNCY | Fx rate | 103.29 | -0.59 | -0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| USD-EUR | USDEUR CURNCY | Fx rate | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.21 | 0.01 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,412.71 | -160.29 | -1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,865.09 | -25.81 | -1.4% | 0.9% | -0.5% |
| 30Y T-Bill | USGG30YR INDEX | Yield | 3.58 | -0.06 | -1.7% | 1.6% | -1.7% |
Analysts Contact Information
- Hong Kong/China: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- India: Jigar Shah (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Singapore: Yeast Chee Keong (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Philippines: Laura Dy-Liacco (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com; Bianca Solema (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Valuation Comparison (April 4, 2014)
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price | Target Price | Mkt Cap | 90D T/O | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.69 | NR | 221.5 | 95.4 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.94 | NR | 96.9 | 114.0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.02 | NR | 69.2 | 120.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 17.3 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 325.65 | NR | 46.5 | 19.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 944.25 | NR | 51.0 | 53.1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 339.40 | 443.00 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 443.60 | NR | 5.4 | 9.7 | 17.1 | 15.5 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 314.35 | NR | 1.8 | 6.2 | 21.2 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 24.08 | 20.20 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 22.9 | 28.7 | 18.3 | 15.6 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| Eni S.p.A. | ENI IM | NR | 18.30 | NR | 91.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Repsol S.A. | REP SM | NR | 18.93 | NR | 34.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Stateoil ASA | STL NO | NR | 169.50 | NR | 90.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OMV AG | OMV AV | NR | 33.00 | NR | 14.8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP PL | NR | 12.67 | NR | 14.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Global Oil Major average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.4 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 13.9 | 1.5 | 4.2 |
Asia Oil Service Valuation
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price | Target Price | Mkt Cap | 90D T/O | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.12 | NR | 1.4 | 11.1 | 22.8 | 19.3 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 18.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.40 | NR | 13.1 | 35.5 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.36 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 46.8 | 14.4 | 19.7 | 13.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.35 | NR | 1.0 | 4.7 | 16.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 17.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.95 | NR | 0.8 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 13.4 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.82 | NR | 5.0 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 18.1 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.25 | NR | 0.8 | 4.7 | 17.1 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 17.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
Key Information
- The market is showing mixed trends in fuel consumption and pricing, with gasoline demand increasing and gasoil demand decreasing in China.
- Companies are adjusting prices and strategies in response to market conditions, such as Sinopec and PetroChina cutting jet kerosene prices.
- LNG imports and operational updates are key factors in the industry's performance.
- There are significant developments in the oil and gas sector, including new projects and technological innovations.
- Valuation data highlights the current market position and future expectations for various companies across Asia and the world.
- Analysts are providing insights and investment recommendations, emphasizing the potential for rerating and growth.
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