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报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 05 June 2014

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in Asia, including price movements, recent news, and valuation comparisons for key companies. It highlights the performance of crude oil and other energy-related products, as well as the financial outlook and analyst ratings for major and regional oil and gas firms.

Market Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Down by 0.4% overnight.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Up by 1.0%.
China Daqing Spot: Up by 0.9%.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Up by 0.2%.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: No change in price, but the index reflects the ICAPs JKM 1-month forward price for LNG.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down by 0.7%.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up by 0.4%.
Gold: Down by 0.1%.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Down by 0.1%.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Up by 0.1%.
S&P 500: Up by 0.2%.

News Headlines

China

Carbon Emissions Cap: China plans to set a hard cap on carbon emissions starting in 2016 as part of its next five-year plan.
Sinopec's Base Oil Output: Sinopec plans to increase its base oil output by 12% MoM in June.
Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline: Line C of the pipeline commenced operations on 31 May, with a design capacity of 25bcm.

Australia

New Standard Energy: Pushed back drilling to 2015 due to pending shareholder approvals.
Oil Search: Raised its LNG output guidance due to an early start in the PNG LNG project.
Sino Australia Oil & Gas: Under investigation by ASIC, with bank accounts frozen until the investigation concludes in August.

Our Latest Reports

UMW Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR12.44
Outlook: Fundamentals remain intact with improving outlook for Auto, O&G, and M&E divisions.
Valuation: Shariah-compliant stock in the KLCI index with undemanding valuations and decent net yields (4 + %).

Bumi Armada

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR4.55
Performance: Results were disappointing, and the company proposed a 1-for-2 right and 1-for-2 bonus issue.
Adjustments: Cut FY14/15 net earnings by 11% / 12%, and reduced the SOP-TP by 9%.

Vard Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD1.27
Performance: Secured two new contracts worth NOK1.3b, with one exceeding NOK1b for offshore projects.
Order Wins: YTD order win of NOK6.8b forms 53% of FY14E forecasts.
Rating Basis: Reiterate BUY with a TP based on 1.4x FY15E P/BV.

Analysts

Howard Wong - HK/CHINA
Jigar Shah - INDIA
Pandu Anugrah - INDONESIA
Liaw Thong Jung - MALAYSIA
Laura Dy-Liacco - PHILIPPINES
Bianca Solema - PHILIPPINES
Yeast Chee Keong - SINGAPORE
Sutthichai Kumworachai - THAILAND
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen - VIETNAM
Truong Quang Binh - VIETNAM

Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (04-Jun)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	9.31	NR	223.5	90.1	10.4	10.3	6.1	5.3	11.8	1.2	4.3
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	7.08	NR	96.9	97.0	9.8	9.1	5.3	4.8	12.2	1.1	4.3
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	13.58	NR	78.2	98.9	8.5	8.6	3.9	3.8	17.3	1.4	4.2
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	411.00	NR	59.3	32.5	14.5	10.9	8.4	5.4	16.8	2.3	2.3
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,077.50	NR	58.7	74.3	15.2	13.1	12.6	10.0	11.9	1.7	0.8
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	351.25	443.00	11.3	16.3	5.6	4.9	3.7	3.2	25.1	1.4	3.3
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	575.70	NR	7.0	14.6	22.1	15.7	8.6	9.0	11.5	2.5	1.9
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	424.20	NR	2.4	10.9	28.7	11.1	13.0	9.2	3.7	1.1	2.0
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	buy	11.94	15.90	2.6	2.8	26.5	14.9	14.3	10.1	5.0	1.2	0.4
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	buy	6.45	7.22	0.2	0.1	14.7	8.8	9.7	7.5	12.7	1.4	1.2

Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil Services)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (04-Jun)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	buy	3.61	4.55	3.3	3.0	24.5	22.4	11.5	13.0	10.6	2.4	0.9
Dialog	DLG MK	buy	3.70	3.90	2.8	5.0	45.8	31.4	30.6	27.1	15.2	6.6	0.9
MMHE	MMHE MK	buy	3.78	4.20	1.9	0.4	25.5	34.7	19.3	21.3	9.3	2.3	1.3
Perdana Petroleum	PETR MK	buy	1.78	2.55	0.4	0.9	20.6	13.6	10.4	10.5	12.1	2.3	0.0
Perisai Petroleum	PPT MK	buy	1.58	1.76	0.6	1.3	21.7	26.3	17.2	27.1	10.4	1.9	0.0
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	hold	24.06	23.50	14.7	5.5	22.9	28.6	17.8	15.5	21.4	4.6	2.3

Key Information

The document highlights price changes in various oil and gas benchmarks.
Sinopec and Cairn India are noted for their positive developments in production and guidance.
New Standard Energy and Sino Australia Oil & Gas are affected by regulatory issues and shareholder approvals.
Bumi Armada is highlighted with a BUY rating, but its results were disappointing.
Vard Holdings is noted for strong order win momentum and reiterated BUY.
Valuation metrics are provided for a range of companies, including P/E, EV/EBITDA, and RoE, with a focus on weighted averages by market capitalization.
Analysts are listed with their contact details and locations.