20140627-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_13页_582kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 27 June 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in various regions, including updates on price movements, recent news, and analyst reports. It includes key information on market trends, company-specific updates, and valuation comparisons.
Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Down 0.7% to $113.21, with a 1-day change of -$0.79 and a 1-month change of +3.6%
- WTI Crude Oil: Down 0.6% to $105.84, with a 1-day change of -$0.66 and a 1-month change of +2.6%
- Henry Hub: Down 2.8% to $4.44, with a 1-day change of -$0.13 and a 1-month change of -1.2%
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Down 4.2% over the last month, with no recent 1-day or 1-week data
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down 0.2% to $120.58, with a 1-day change of +$0.05
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down 0.2% to $124.59, with a 1-day change of -$0.20
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Up 0.0% to $627.94, with a 1-day change of +$0.25
- Gold: Down 0.2% to $1,316.58, with a 1-day change of -$2.60
- USD-CNY: Down 0.2% to 6.22, with a 1-day change of -$0.01
- DJI: Down 0.1% to 16,846.13, with a 1-day change of -21.38
- S&P 500: Down 0.1% to 1,957.22, with a 1-day change of -2.31
Key News Headlines
China
- Petrochemical Imports: Most of China's petrochemical product imports fell in May compared to a year ago. DOP, IPA, and BD saw the largest drops.
- Honghua Group: Won a USD32m rig order from Abraj Energy Services, set to deliver two units of 7,000 meter land drilling rigs by 1H15.
- Taiwan's CPC: Planning to shut down its No. 4 cracker in Linyuan on 30 June due to technical issues, expected to last around 10 days.
Other Regions
- Osaka Gas: Addressed challenges facing LNG exporters, noting increased demand from emerging Asian economies and Japan's energy liberalization in 2016.
- BG Group: Commenced production at QCLNG in Australia, gathering gas from the Surat basin via a 540-km pipeline.
- India: Considering ramping up 230ktpa synthetic rubber capacity, with current installed capacity at 270ktpa.
- Kvaerner: Won a USD492m jackets contract for two platforms in the Johan Sverdrup field.
- BMT Scientific Marine Services: Secured a contract for riser monitoring systems on the Aasta Hansteen project.
Analyst Reports and Ratings
China
- Petron Corp: RMP-2 within sight, target price PHP16.80, BUY rating. Expected to complete RMP-2 by end of June and full commercial operations by Dec 2014.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Results on track, target price MYR5.30, BUY rating. Secured two EPCIC contracts worth MYR1.3b, increasing backlog to MYR30b.
- PetroChina: One step back; three steps forward, target price HKD11.50, BUY rating. Believed to benefit from energy reforms and potential for private capital access.
- Sinopec: Fu-nancial engineering, target price HKD6.85, HOLD rating. Lack of catalysts for further re-rating.
- CNOOC: Fighting the 'producer's curse', target price HKD14.34, HOLD rating. Expected to have a low CAGR due to cost inflation.
- NewOcean Energy: Riding the next big thing, target price HKD8.88, BUY rating. Seen as a key player in auto LNG with potential to be the largest distributor in China by 2017.
India
- ONGC: Not rated, price INR411.35, market cap USD58.5b.
- Reliance Industries: Not rated, price INR1,011.90, market cap USD54.4b.
- Cairn India: BUY rating, target price INR443.00, price INR364.35, market cap USD11.5b.
- BPCL: Not rated, price INR567.85, market cap USD6.8b.
- HPCL: Not rated, price INR398.35, market cap USD2.2b.
Japan
- INPEX: Not rated, price JPY1,563.00, market cap USD22.5b.
- JAPEX: Not rated, price JPY4,315.00, market cap USD2.6b.
- JX Holding: Not rated, price JPY548.00, market cap USD13.5b.
- Showa Shell: Not rated, price JPY1,180.00, market cap USD4.4b.
- TonenGeneral: Not rated, price JPY974.00, market cap USD5.4b.
- Idemitsu: Not rated, price JPY2,226.00, market cap USD3.5b.
- Cosmo: Not rated, price JPY220.00, market cap USD1.8b.
Malaysia
- Gas Malaysia: HOLD rating, target price HKD3.80, price HKD3.60, market cap USD1.4b.
- Petronas Gas: HOLD rating, target price HKD23.50, price HKD24.66, market cap USD15.2b.
Philippines
- Petron Corp: BUY rating, target price HKD16.80, price HKD12.62, market cap USD2.7b.
- Phoenix Petro: BUY rating, target price HKD7.05, price HKD6.50, market cap USD0.2b.
Thailand
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: BUY rating, target price HKD87.00, price HKD66.75, market cap USD9.3b.
- PTT PCL: BUY rating, target price HKD395.00, price HKD308.00, market cap USD27.1b.
- Thai Oil PCL: SELL rating, target price HKD65.00, price HKD52.50, market cap USD3.3b.
Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Gas: BUY rating, target price USD103,000, price USD108,000, market cap USD9.6b.
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (26-Jun) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | BUY | 9.82 | 11.50 | 222.6 | 87.6 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | HOLD | 7.38 | 6.85 | 100.7 | 84.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | HOLD | 13.82 | 14.34 | 79.6 | 94.1 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 411.35 | NR | 58.5 | 47.9 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,011.90 | NR | 54.4 | 75.1 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | BUY | 364.35 | 443.00 | 11.5 | 18.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 567.85 | NR | 6.8 | 18.3 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 398.35 | NR | 2.2 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | BUY | 12.62 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | BUY | 6.50 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | HOLD | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 25.4 | 24.2 | 15.3 | 14.2 | 18.1 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | HOLD | 24.66 | 23.50 | 15.2 | 5.1 | 29.3 | 28.2 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | BUY | 66.75 | 87.00 | 9.3 | 25.3 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | BUY | 308.00 | 395.00 | 27.1 | 32.6 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | SELL | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16.7 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
Analysts Contact Information
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
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