20140428-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_569kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 28 Apr 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of the regional oil and gas market performance as of 28 April 2014, highlighting price movements, news headlines, and analyst ratings for key companies in Asia, the Middle East, and other regions. It also includes valuation comparisons for both oil & gas and oil service companies.

Market Performance

Crude Oil (Brent): Down by 0.75% on the day, with a -0.7% weekly and -0.3% monthly change.
Crude Oil (WTI): Down by 1.34% on the day, with a -2.9% weekly and -0.3% monthly change.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Flat on the day, with a -1.7% weekly and -4.5% monthly change.
S&P 500 & Dow Jones: Both down by 0.8% on the day, with a -0.5% weekly and -0.5% monthly change for S&P 500, and -0.5% weekly and 0.2% monthly change for Dow Jones.

News Headlines

China

Gasoline and Diesel Export Margins: Further dipped by CNY123/tonne and CNY140/tonne in the Pearl River Delta due to higher domestic prices.
LPG Imports: China imported 84% of its March LPG from the Middle East, totaling 253,957 tonnes.
Oil Product Inventories: Fell by 2.05% MoM at the end of March. Gasoline and kerosene inventories increased by 1.83% and 4.53%, respectively, while diesel inventories dropped by 5.66%.
GB-III Diesel Vehicles: Sales of these vehicles will be banned from January 2015.
Refinery Loading Rates: Major Chinese refineries operated at 80.12% capacity utilization, down from 80.44% two weeks ago.

Upstream Activities

Pertamina Hulu Energi (Indonesia): Plans to increase exploration activity to sustain growth.
Petrobras (Brazil): Set to launch a tender for FPSO integration in 2H14.
Gazprom (Russia): Denies Rosneft access to a gas pipeline for its LNG project, prompting Rosneft to seek government intervention.

Analyst Reports

Keppel Corp

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD12.48
Performance: 1Q14 results met expectations, with a 5.1% YoY dip in PATMI to SGD338.7m due to one-offs.
O&M Margin: Held steady at 14.2%.
Net Orderbook: Reached a record SGD14.4b, with SGD1.9b in new orders secured in 1Q14.

Ezion Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD2.70
Performance: Secured two USD78.7m liftboat contracts, with deployment expected in 1H15.
Share Placement: Placed 100m new shares at SGD1.94/share, a 9.6% discount to VWAP.
Target Price Adjustment: Trimmed to SGD2.70 due to share dilution.

Dialog Group

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR3.90
Arbitration: Entered into arbitration with Tanjun Langsat Port over a 2008 fire incident.
Legal Action: Either party can take the case to court if arbitration fails to resolve.
Maintained BUY Rating and MYR3.90 target price.

Valuation Comparison (Oil & Gas)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (25-Apr)	Target Price	Market Cap (USDm)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	8.80	NR	219.2	99.8	9.8	9.8	5.6	5.2	11.8	1.1	4.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	6.93	NR	96.8	118.1	9.6	8.7	5.3	4.6	12.2	1.1	4.4
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	12.54	NR	72.2	114.9	7.9	8.0	3.6	3.5	17.3	1.3	4.5
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	320.95	NR	45.3	21.8	11.3	10.3	17.2	14.5	16.8	1.8	3.0
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	948.25	NR	50.5	53.9	13.4	11.5	11.0	8.9	11.9	1.5	0.9
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	335.00	443.00	10.5	14.4	5.3	4.7	3.5	3.0	25.1	1.3	3.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	460.65	NR	5.5	11.2	17.7	15.9	7.4	8.7	11.5	2.0	2.4
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	315.10	NR	1.8	7.3	21.3	11.6	12.7	10.5	3.7	0.8	2.7
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	buy	12.32	15.90	2.6	2.6	30.8	35.2	12.8	10.0	5.0	1.2	0.4
Phoenix Petroleum	PNX PM	buy	6.49	7.22	0.2	0.1	14.8	8.9	9.7	7.5	12.7	1.5	1.2
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	buy	97,000	103,000	8.7	1.6	15.0	12.7	10.1	8.1	40.6	5.5	3.1
Asian Refiners Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.7	11.0	-	-	-	-	-

Valuation Comparison (Oil Services)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (25-Apr)	Target Price	Market Cap (USDm)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NR	5.17	NR	1.5	5.9	23.0	19.9	11.5	9.4	18.0	3.8	1.3
China Oilfield Services-H	2883 HK	NR	19.74	NR	12.6	27.7	10.5	10.2	8.0	7.3	19.3	1.9	2.7
Chu Kong Petroleum	1938 HK	NR	2.58	NR	0.3	0.4	51.1	15.9	20.3	13.8	1.4	0.6	0.0
Hilong Holding	1623 HK	NR	4.41	NR	1.0	4.9	16.9	11.8	7.8	6.5	14.4	2.2	2.2
Honghua Group	196 HK	NR	1.99	NR	0.8	3.0	9.3	7.4	6.5	5.7	11.7	1.1	3.0
Sinopec Engineering-H	2386 HK	NR	8.47	NR	4.8	8.6	7.2	7.1	3.4	3.1	26.1	1.4	4.8
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	4.54	NR	0.9	4.4	18.3	14.6	8.5	6.5	17.8	3.0	1.4
Dialog	DLG MK	buy	3.60	3.90	2.7	5.3	44.6	30.5	28.6	26.9	15.2	6.4	0.9
KNM	KNMG MK	NR	0.88	NR	0.4	9.0	54.0	24.4	n.a.	n.a.	1.2	0.6	0.0
MMHE	MMHE MK	buy	4.05	4.20	2.0	0.8	27.4	37.2	19.7	22.9	9.3	2.5	1.2
Perdana Petroleum	PETR MK	buy	1.90	2.55	0.4	1.2	22.0	14.8	11.2	11.0	12.1	2.5	0.0

Key Takeaways

China's Oil Market: Export margins for gasoline and diesel declined, and oil product inventories dropped, indicating increased domestic demand.
Refinery Capacity: Major Chinese refineries operated at 80.12% capacity, slightly down from previous weeks.
Upstream Activities: Exploration and integration activities are being ramped up in Indonesia and Brazil, with potential implications for regional supply.
Valuation Trends: The report highlights a range of valuations and growth expectations, with several companies rated as BUY and others as HOLD or SELL.
Market Capitalization and Performance: Valuation multiples and yields are weighted by market cap, showing varied performance across the sector.