20151130-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_787kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market dynamics in Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam as of November 2015, along with analyst ratings and financial data for various companies. It highlights the performance of key oil and gas prices, market trends, and investment recommendations.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indices
- Brent Crude Oil: Fell by 1.3% to USD44.86 per barrel. 1-day change: -0.60, 1-week change: 0.0%, 1-month change: -5.7%.
- WTI Crude Oil: Remained unchanged at USD41.71 per barrel. 1-day change: --, 1-week change: 0.0%, 1-month change: -5.5%.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: At USD41.01 per barrel. 1-day change: 0.00, 1-week change: 2.2%, 1-month change: -6.3%.
- China Daqing Spot: At USD38.28 per barrel. 1-day change: -0.62, 1-week change: -1.6%, 1-month change: -6.9%.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: At USD2.21 per MMBtu. 1-day change: --, 1-week change: -3.4%, 1-month change: -12.6%.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: At USD7.29 per MMBtu. 1-day change: --, 1-week change: -1.6%, 1-month change: -2.7%.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: At USD54.67 per barrel. 1-day change: -0.28, 1-week change: -0.5%, 1-month change: -7.0%.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: At USD57.48 per gallon. 1-day change: -0.09, 1-week change: -0.2%, 1-month change: -2.4%.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: At USD230.18 per mt. 1-day change: 0.00, 1-week change: 1.0%, 1-month change: -4.8%.
- Gold: At USD1,057.45 per ounce. 1-day change: -14.88, 1-week change: -1.9%, 1-month change: -9.4%.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: At 6.39. 1-day change: 0.01, 1-week change: 0.2%, 1-month change: 0.7%.
- DJI: At 17,813.39. 1-day change: --, 1-week change: -0.1%, 1-month change: 1.3%.
- S&P 500: At 2,088.87. 1-day change: --, 1-week change: 0.0%, 1-month change: 1.1%.
News Headlines
- Oil complex settles lower on bearish China demand: Oil prices fell due to weak demand in China, with NYMEX crude and ULSD futures declining.
- China may cut fuel prices by CNY130/tonne on 2 December: China is likely to cut fuel prices due to a drop in international crude prices.
- Good Time for India to Get Into Long-Term LNG Deals: Low LNG prices present an opportunity for India to secure long-term contracts.
- ENGIE Delivers First LNG Cargo to Beijing Gas: France's ENGIE supplied its first LNG cargo to Beijing Gas Group, with a second delivery expected in January.
Our Latest Reports
Barakah Offshore Petroleum
- Performance: 9M15 below; Downgrade to SELL.
- Reasons: Weak performance in 3Q15 due to project delays; cut forecasts by 30-151%.
- Target Price (TP): MYR0.65 (down from previous TP).
- Valuation: Roll forward to 10x FD 2017 PER.
KNM Group
- Performance: 9M15 below; Cut earnings and TP.
- Reasons: Weak GP margin and deferred tax charges; lumpy business model.
- Target Price (TP): MYR0.80 (down by 20%).
- Valuation: Roll forward to 0.4xEV/backlog.
Icon Offshore
- Performance: 9M15 above; Upgrade to HOLD.
- Reasons: Improved OSV utilisation rates; better risk-reward ratio.
- Target Price (TP): MYR0.37 (up by 88%).
- Valuation: Roll forward to 10x 2017 PER.
Perisai Petroleum
- Performance: 9M15 above; Upgrade to HOLD.
- Reasons: Cost-cutting measures improved performance; potential for new contracts.
- Target Price (TP): MYR0.29 (up by 32%).
- Valuation: Roll forward to 1x EV/replacement value.
Analysts Contact
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 27-Nov | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.63 | 4.80 | 243.3 | 82.5 | 24.8 | 43.3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.07 | 6.00 | 94.1 | 69.9 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.55 | 11.34 | 49.3 | 92.5 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.29 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
Asia Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 27-Nov | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 8.15 | NR | 10.1 | 11.7 | 16.0 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.00 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | N/A | N/A | 41.2 | 11.6 | -3.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.75 | NR | 0.1 | 0.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | -14.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.52 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | -4.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.56 | NR | 0.2 | 0.3 | N/A | N/A | 12.6 | 9.7 | -2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Hold | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 31.4 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| KNM Group | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Icon Offshore | ICON MK | Hold | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 31.4 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | Hold | 0.30 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Key Information
- The oil complex faced downward pressure due to weak China demand, with Brent and WTI prices declining.
- China is expected to cut fuel prices by CNY130/tonne, impacting the domestic market.
- India is advised to take advantage of low LNG prices to secure long-term contracts.
- ENGIE has started LNG supply to Beijing Gas, indicating growing international interest in the Asian market.
- Several companies in Asia and the global oil and gas sector have been rated by Maybank KE, with different target prices and valuations.
- Financial metrics such as PER, EV/EBITDA, and P/BV are used to assess company valuations.
- The document is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank KE, with notes on the use of forward-looking estimates.
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