20140324-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_569kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 24 Mar 2014
Core Content
This summary outlines recent developments and market insights in the Asian oil and gas sector, focusing on China, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. It includes news headlines, analyst insights, and valuation comparisons across major oil and gas companies and service providers.
Main News Headlines
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China's NDRC releases guidelines on residential gas price
- Document No. 467 introduced a pricing mechanism where the first 80% of consumption is at a base rate, 80%-95% at a 20% premium, and above 95% at a 50% premium.
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China's LPG production volume falls 11.06% in February MoM
- The decline was attributed to fewer working days and the Lunar New Year holiday. LPG output is expected to remain flat in March due to refinery turnarounds and low trading activity.
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CNOOC cuts LNG supplies to Guangdong province
- Due to a limited number of Indonesian LNG cargoes arriving, CNOOC reduced supplies. There is a possibility that even truck-delivered LNG to Guangdong could be cut if the gas shortage persists.
-
CNPC fined USD1.2b by Chad authorities for environmental violations
- CNPC faces a USD1.2b fine and is required to halt operations and repair environmental damage in Chad.
-
INEOS files Sinopec ACN IP suit
- INEOS claims Sinopec has used its ACN technology without paying fees for multiple plants, while Sinopec argues it developed the technology independently.
-
Formosa Plastics Corp cuts capacity utilisation at Mailiao MMA plant to 50%
- The plant's reduced output is due to technical issues with the upstream feedstock line after restarting on 12 March.
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Wavenet to be acquired by Tanjung Offshore
- The acquisition of Wavenet for MYR 37.18m is expected to diversify Tanjung Offshore's income stream and is set to be completed in 30 days.
-
Merrill Lynch to supply LNG to Dubai
- A short-term LNG supply contract was signed with the Dubai Supply Authority for the Jebel Ali terminal.
Latest Reports
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Ezion Holdings - Sea of opportunities (BUY, TP SGD2.90)
- The listing of Gulf Marine Services supports the company's valuation. New entrants and competition could increase liftboat adoption, benefiting Ezion.
-
Malaysia and Singapore Oil & Gas - Ideas abound (OVERWEIGHT)
- The sector is driven by rig building, drilling, OSV upcycling, and PETRONAS capex. Top BUYs include Bumi Armada, Dialog, SAKP, Perisai, and Perdana in Malaysia, and SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid, and Nam Cheong in Singapore.
-
PetroVietnam GAS (GAS VN) - Long-term value creation; Initiate at BUY (BUY, PT VND103,000)
- The state's gas-based energy expansion plan will increase demand for natural gas. The government is working on resolving the upstream Block B project and plans to import LNG starting in 2017.
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Perisai Petroleum (PPT MK) - Buys an OSV for USD7m (BUY, PT MYR1.95)
- The acquisition is marginally earnings accretive. Securing charters and a contract for its 1st JU rig are positive catalysts.
Analysts
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Howard Wong (HK/CHINA)
- Contact: (852) 22680648
- Email: howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
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Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA)
- Contact: (603) 2297 8688
- Email: tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
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Jigar Shah (INDIA)
- Contact: (91) 226623 2601
- Email: jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
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Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE)
- Contact: (65) 6432 1460
- Email: yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
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Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND)
- Contact: (66) 2658 6300 x 1400
- Email: sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
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Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA)
- Contact: (62) 21 2557 1137
- Email: pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
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Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES)
- Contact: (63) 28498840
- Email: laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
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Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM)
- Contact: (84) 844555888x8082
- Email: chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
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Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM)
- Contact: (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087
- Email: binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (as of 21 Mar 2014)
| Commodity/Service | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Absolute Change | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 99.46 | 0.56 | 0.6% | 0.9% | -2.3% |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 106.92 | 0.47 | 0.4% | -1.2% | -2.9% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/barrel | 103.75 | 1.30 | 1.3% | 0.0% | -3.0% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/barrel | 105.28 | 0.45 | 0.4% | -0.2% | -4.6% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.31 | -0.00 | -1.3% | -2.5% | -12.9% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/barrel | 116.69 | 0.05 | 0.0% | -0.9% | -0.2% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/gallon | 121.94 | 1.45 | 1.2% | 0.8% | -2.8% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 606.84 | 1.54 | 0.3% | -0.1% | -2.0% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,334.69 | 6.92 | 0.5% | -3.5% | 1.8% |
| USD-JPY | USDJPY CURNCY | Fx rate | 102.25 | -0.14 | -0.1% | 0.9% | -0.1% |
| USD-EUR | USDEUR CURNCY | Fx rate | 0.73 | -0.00 | -0.1% | 0.8% | -0.4% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.23 | -0.00 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,302.77 | -28.28 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,866.52 | -5.49 | -0.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| 30Y T-Bill | USGG30YR INDEX | Yield | 3.61 | -0.06 | -1.5% | 0.2% | -2.9% |
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison (as of 21 Mar 2014)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 21-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD b | 90D T/O USD m | P/E (X) 2013E | P/E (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2013E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 7.86 | NR | 220.9 | 88.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.0 | 5.1 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.63 | NR | 98.5 | 108.0 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 12.4 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 11.92 | NR | 68.6 | 112.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 18.8 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 308.15 | NR | 43.3 | 16.2 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 16.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 889.00 | NR | 47.1 | 44.3 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 329.55 | 443.00 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 430.30 | NR | 5.1 | 8.4 | 16.5 | 14.8 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 278.70 | NR | 1.5 | 5.3 | 18.8 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| INTEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,221.00 | NR | 17.5 | 57.0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| JAPEX | 1662 JT | NR | 3,355.00 | NR | 1.9 | 9.4 | n.a. | 8.0 | 6.8 | 5.6 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 505.00 | NR | 12.3 | 63.6 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 913.00 | NR | 3.4 | 16.7 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 21.9 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| TenenGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 854.00 | NR | 4.7 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 27.0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,023.00 | NR | 3.2 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 181.00 | NR | 1.5 | 6.9 | n.a. | 15.7 | 10.3 | 13.4 | -31.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | hold | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 23.5 | 17.1 | 14.4 | 17.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 23.22 | 20.20 | 13.8 | 3.9 | 22.1 | 27.5 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 21.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 13.80 | 15.90 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 34.5 | 39.4 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 5.05 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 84,000.00 | 103,000 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 12.9 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 40.8 | 4.7 | 6.8 |
| PTT E&P | PTTGC TB | buy | 70.50 | 87.00 | 9.8 | 26.1 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 292.00 | 395.00 | 25.8 | 33.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 21.7 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.00 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 1.6 | 6.7 |
Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison (as of 21 Mar 2014)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 21-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD b | 90D T/O USD m | P/E (X) 2013E | P/E (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2013E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | buy | 1.37 | 1.90 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 13.6 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 15.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | buy | 1.55 | 1.85 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 27.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.87 | 5.00 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 26.3 | 18.6 | 40.3 | 26.4 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.50 | 3.90 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 43.4 | 29.7 | 15.2 | 10.8 | 15.2 | 6.2 | 0.9 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | buy | 1.53 | 1.95 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 21.0 | 18.2 | 12.6 | 24.4 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| SembCorp Marine | SMM SP | buy | 3.99 | 5.04 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 21.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Mermaid Maritime | MMT SP | buy | 0.46 | 0.67 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Nam Cheong | NCL SP | buy | 0.32 | 0.41 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 24.0 | 1.9 | 4.4 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | buy | 8.65 | 10.10 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Vard Holdings | VARD SP | buy | 1.02 | 1.07 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 16.0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Ezion | EZI SP | buy | 2.17 | 2.90 | 2.0 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 19.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Key Insights
- Pricing and Production: China's gas pricing guidelines and LPG production decline due to the Lunar New Year holiday and refinery maintenance.
- LNG Supply: CNOOC reduced LNG supplies to Guangdong, highlighting potential gas shortages.
- Legal Issues: CNPC faces a USD1.2b fine in Chad for environmental violations.
- Technology Disputes: INEOS sues Sinopec over IP infringement in ACN technology.
- Plant Operations: Formosa Plastics Corp reduced MMA plant capacity due to technical issues.
- Market Expansion: Maybank Kim Eng highlights investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector across Asia, with a focus on Malaysia and Singapore.
- Valuation Metrics: The report includes detailed valuation data for oil and gas companies, focusing on price-to-earnings (P/E), enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), return on equity (RoE), and price-to-book (P/B) ratios.
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