2023-07-18-莱坊-Canberra_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_742kb

Canberra Residential Market Q2 2023 Summary

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q2 2023 analysis provides an in-depth look at the residential market trends in Canberra, covering sales and price performance, rental market dynamics, future pipeline, population growth, economic outlook, and the lending environment.

Main Market Trends

Residential Market Overall

• Sales Volume: Residential sales volume dropped by 36% in the March 2023 quarter to 1,783 homes, with an annual decline of 28%.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for a residential home increased to 62 days in March 2023, up from 49 days one quarter prior.
• Price Performance: Median residential property values fell by 6.4% over the year to March 2023, with a 1.7% decline in the past quarter to $875,500.

Houses

• Sales Volume: House sales volume declined by 34.9% in the March 2023 quarter to 922 houses, with an annual drop of 19.5%.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for houses rose to 62 days in March 2023, up from 46 days one quarter ago.
• Price Performance: Median house values fell by 8.4% over the year to March 2023, reaching $1,047,000, with a 2.5% decline in the past quarter.
• Rental Market: Gross rental yields for houses increased by 8 bps to 3.73%, while weekly median rents remained steady at $690, up 1.4% over the past year.

Apartments

• Sales Volume: Apartment sales volume dropped by 37.3% in the March 2023 quarter to 861 apartments, with an annual decline of 34.7%.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for apartments increased to 62 days in March 2023, up from 55 days one quarter ago.
• Price Performance: Median apartment values rose by 0.5% over the year to March 2023, with a 0.9% increase in the past quarter to $579,000.
• Rental Market: Gross rental yields for apartments increased by 12 bps to 5.48%, but rents declined by 1.8% in the quarter, with a 1.9% annual increase and a median rent of $550 per week.

Key Drivers and Forecasts

Economic Growth

• ACT economic growth was 2.1% in 2022 and is forecast to be 0.1% in 2023, with an average of 1.2% from 2023 to 2025.

Unemployment Rate

• Unemployment in Canberra stood at 3.0% as of March 2023, up by 31 bps from the previous quarter.

Cash Rate Target

• The official cash rate was raised by 50 bps to 4.10% over the past three months. Oxford Economics forecasts it to decrease to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.

Mortgage Lending Rates

• Owner Occupier Loans: Average mortgage rates for 3-year fixed loans increased by 3 bps to 6.27%, while standard variable loans rose by 50 bps to 8.02%.
• Investor Loans: 3-year fixed rates decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%, and standard variable loans rose by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Future Pipeline

• Building Approvals: Building approvals in Canberra fell by 17.9% for houses and 52.1% for apartments compared to the previous quarter.
• Market Outlook: The market correction for established houses continues, while apartment prices remain stable with modest rental growth.

Population and Economic Context

• Population Growth: Canberra's population was 456,750 in 2022, with an annual increase of 5.8%, projected to grow at 1.5% per annum until 2041.
• Economic Forecast: The economic outlook suggests a slowdown, with growth expected to remain below 1% in the coming years.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

Canberra's residential market in Q2 2023 showed mixed performance, with established houses experiencing a market correction and declining prices, while apartment prices remained stable and rents showed modest growth. The rental market maintained steady conditions, with increased gross rental yields but a slight decline in apartment rents. The economic outlook suggests a potential slowdown, with a projected average cash rate of 3.94% by 2024 and a projected population growth of 1.5% per annum until 2041. Lending conditions have tightened, with a decline in new household loan commitments and rising mortgage rates.