2023-07-18-莱坊-Sydney_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_785kb

Sydney Residential Market Summary Q2 2023

Core Content Overview

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the residential market in Greater Sydney, including sales performance, price trends, rental market conditions, population growth, economic indicators, and the lending environment. It also includes forecasts for the next few years based on data from Knight Frank and Oxford Economics.

Residential Market Performance

Sales & Price Trends

• Sales Volume:
  • Q2 2023 (March quarter): 14,154 homes sold, a 27% decrease from the previous quarter.
  • Annual sales volume: 33% lower than a year ago.
• Days on Market:
  • Average days on market for residential homes in Q2 2023: 76 days.
  • This is an increase from 65 days one quarter ago.
• Price Performance:
  • Median residential value at the end of March 2023: $1,152,500.
  • Annual change in median values: -7.4%.
  • Quarterly price increase: 1.1%.

Rental Market Conditions

• Vacancy Rate:
  • Total residential rental vacancy in March 2023: 1.4% (REIA).
• Rental Yields:
  • Gross rental yields increased by 21 bps to 3.61% in Q1 2023.
• Rental Growth:
  • Rents for residential property rose 3.2% in the quarter to March 2023.
  • Annual rental growth: 15.3%, with a weekly median rent of $640.

Future Pipeline

• Building Approvals:
  • Houses: 2,942 approved in the quarter to March 2023, a 19.5% decrease from the previous quarter.
  • Apartments: 2,822 approved, a 41.9% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.

Population & Economic Trends

• Population:
  • Estimated at 5.3 million persons in 2022.
  • Annual population change: -1.2%.
  • Projected growth to 2041: 1.6% per annum (ABS).
• Economic Growth:
  • NSW economic growth in 2022: 2.0%.
  • Forecast for 2023: 0.3% (Oxford Economics).
• Unemployment Rate:
  • Greater Sydney unemployment rate in March 2023: 3.7%, an increase of 57 bps from the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

• Household Loan Commitments:
  • NSW household loan commitments fell by 2.2% in the March 2023 quarter.
  • First home buyer lending commitments rose by 47.6% in March 2023, compared to 36.5% a year earlier.
  • First home buyers represented 17.2% of all owner occupier loans in March 2023.
• Cash Rate Target:
  • The official cash rate was raised by 50 bps over the past three months to 4.10%.
  • Forecast for 2024: 3.94% (Oxford Economics).
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner occupier mortgage rates:
    • 3-year fixed: 6.27%, up 3 bps from the previous quarter.
    • Standard variable: 8.02%, up 50 bps.
  • Investor mortgage rates:
    • 3-year fixed: 6.32%, down 1 bps.
    • Standard variable: 8.60%, up 50 bps.

Established Houses

• Sales Volume:

  • Q2 2023 (March quarter): 8,425 houses sold, a 26.3% decrease from the previous quarter.
  • Annual sales volume: 32.7% lower than a year ago.

• Days on Market:

  • Average days on market: 66 days in March 2023, up from 53 days one quarter ago.

• Price Performance:

  • Median house value at the end of March 2023: $1,460,000.
  • Annual change in median house values: -8.4%.
  • Quarterly price increase: 1.3%.

• Rental Market:

  • Gross rental yields for houses increased by 13 bps to 3.00%.
  • Rents rose 1.5% in the quarter to March 2023, with an annual increase of 10.0% to a weekly median of $660.

Established Apartments

• Sales Volume:

  • Q2 2023 (March quarter): 5,729 apartments sold, a 28.3% decrease from the previous quarter.
  • Annual sales volume: 34.1% lower than a year ago.

• Days on Market:

  • Average days on market for apartments: 89 days in March 2023, up from 81 days one quarter ago.

• Price Performance:

  • Median apartment value at the end of March 2023: $758,500.
  • Annual change in median apartment values: -4.7%.
  • Quarterly price increase: 0.7%.

• Rental Market:

  • Gross rental yields for apartments increased by 31 bps to 4.39%.
  • Rents rose 6.9% in the quarter to March 2023, with an annual increase of 24.0% to a weekly median of $620.

Sydney Residential Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (Oxford Economics)

Sydney Residential Forecast (Knight Frank Research)

Key Contacts

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential Site Sales: Grant Bulpett
  Email: grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9761 1872

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
  Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
  Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 662