2023-10-01-莱坊-Canberra_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_833kb

Canberra Residential Market Summary - Q3 2023

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the residential market in Canberra, focusing on sales, price performance, rental market conditions, and new builds for the quarter ending June 2023. It also includes forecasts for the next few years based on economic and policy trends.

Market Trends

Sales Performance

• Quarterly Sales Volume: Down 14% to 2,013 homes in the June 2023 quarter.
• Annual Sales Volume: 28% lower than the same period in 2022.
• Days on Market: Increased slightly to 63 days in June 2023 from 59 days one quarter prior.

Price Performance

• Median Residential Value: $855,000 at the end of June 2023.
• Annual Price Change: A 11.6% decline in capital values for residential homes.
• Quarterly Price Change: A 0.2% decrease in the past quarter.
• Forecasted Price Changes:
  • End of 2023: -2%
  • 2024: +4%
  • 2025: +5%

Rental Performance

• Total Vacancy Rate: 2.0% in June 2023, up from 1.7% in the previous quarter and 0.7% one year ago.
• Gross Rental Yields: Decreased by 4 bps to 4.33% in Q2 2023.
• Median Weekly Rent: $630, down 1.6% in the quarter and 1.6% over the past year.
• Forecasted Rental Changes:
  • End of 2023: -3%
  • 2024: +3%
  • 2025: +5%

Property Segments

Established Houses

• Median House Value: $1,034,000 at the end of June 2023.
• Annual Price Change: -12.0%.
• Quarterly Price Change: No change in the past quarter.
• Median Weekly Rent: $675, down 2.2% in the quarter but up 2.2% over the past year.
• Gross Rental Yield: 3.71%, down 2 bps in Q2 2023.

Established Apartments

• Median Apartment Value: $545,500 at the end of June 2023.
• Annual Price Change: -10.5%.
• Quarterly Price Change: -0.9%.
• Median Weekly Rent: $550, stable over the quarter and past year.
• Gross Rental Yield: 5.40%, down 8 bps in Q2 2023.
• Sales Volume: Down 19.9% to 981 apartments in the June 2023 quarter, with annual sales down 34.2%.

New Builds

• Building Approvals: 193 houses and 292 apartments approved in the quarter to June 2023.
• Trend: House approvals down 12.3%, apartment approvals down 52.8% compared to the previous quarter.

Economic and Policy Drivers

Key Economic Indicators

• ACT Annual Economic Growth: 1.9% in 2022, forecasted to reach 2.3% in 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: 3.7% in June 2023, with forecasts of 4.3% in 2024.
• Official Cash Rate Target: 3.8% in 2023, forecasted to decrease to 3.4% in 2025.

Housing Market Forecast

• Price Performance (2023-2025):
  • 2023: -2%
  • 2024: +4%
  • 2025: +5%
• Rental Market (2023-2025):
  • 2023: -3%
  • 2024: +3%
  • 2025: +5%
• Average Forecast (2023-2025): 2% for both price and rental performance.

Contact Information

• Michelle Ciesielski: +61290366659, michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Grant Bulpett: +61297611872, grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
• Sally Edvardsen: +61290366845, sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Erin van Tuil: +61290366699, erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Luke Hayes: +61290366700, luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Alistair Carpenter: +6129036662, al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com

Summary of Key Points

• Market Correction: The Canberra residential market has seen a significant price correction over the past year, with a 11.6% annual decline.
• Sales Decline: Both total and established home sales have declined, with a 14% quarterly drop and 28% annual drop.
• Rental Market: Vacancy rates have increased slightly, and rental yields have decreased, though rents for apartments have remained stable.
• New Builds: Building approvals have declined, particularly for apartments, indicating a slowdown in new housing supply.
• Economic Outlook: The ACT is expected to grow at 2.3% in 2025, with a forecasted cash rate target of 3.4%.
• Market Forecast: Prices and rents are expected to stabilize or rise in the coming years, with a 2% average growth forecast for both by 2025.