2023-07-18-莱坊-Brisbane_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_750kb

报告摘要

Brisbane Residential Market Summary Q2 2023

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q2 2023 analysis provides insights into the residential market trends in Greater Brisbane, covering sales, prices, rental performance, population growth, economic indicators, and the lending environment.

Main Market Trends

Sales & Price Performance

Total Residential Sales:
- Sales volume decreased by 30% in the March 2023 quarter to 9,115 homes.
- Annual sales volume was 22% lower than a year ago.
Days on Market:
- The average days on market for a residential home was 61 days in the March 2023 quarter, up from 52 days one quarter prior.
Price Changes:
- Median residential value fell to $713,000 in March 2023, down 0.1% from the previous quarter.
- Over the year to March 2023, capital values decreased by 3.8%.

Established Houses

Sales Volume:
- House sales volume dropped by 24.2% in the March 2023 quarter to 6,762 homes.
- Annual sales volume was 30.6% lower than a year ago.
Days on Market:
- Average days on market for houses was 61 days, up from 51 days one quarter earlier.
Price Changes:
- Median house value fell to $806,000 in March 2023, down 4.9% year-on-year.
- Over the year to March 2023, capital values decreased by 4.9%.
Rental Performance:
- Gross rental yields for houses increased by 16 bps to 4.19% in Q1 2023.
- Weekly median rents for houses rose 12.0% over the past year to $560, with a 1.8% increase in the quarter.

Established Apartments

Sales Volume:
- Apartment sales volume declined by 41.3% in the March 2023 quarter to 2,353 apartments.
- Annual sales volume was 30.4% lower than a year ago.
Days on Market:
- Average days on market for apartments was 62 days, up from 55 days one quarter earlier.
Price Changes:
- Median apartment value stood at $450,000 in March 2023, down 0.6% in the quarter and 1.6% over the year.
Rental Performance:
- Gross rental yields for apartments increased by 16 bps to 5.51% in the March 2023 quarter.
- Weekly median rents for apartments rose 16.3% over the past year to $500, with a 4.2% increase in the quarter.

Rental Market Highlights

Total Residential Vacancy:
- At 0.8% in March 2023, this was the third lowest vacancy rate among Australian capital cities.
Rental Growth:
- Weekly median rent for residential property increased by 2.8% in the quarter and 13.5% over the past year to $545.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Gross rental yields for residential property increased by 16 bps to 4.54% in Q1 2023.

Future Pipeline

Building Approvals:
- In the quarter to March 2023, building approvals totaled 2,774 houses and 2,320 apartments.
- House approvals trended down by 11.0%, while apartment approvals increased by 2.4% compared to the previous quarter.

Population & Economic Indicators

Population Growth:
- Estimated population in Greater Brisbane was 2.6 million in 2022, with an annual increase of 1.8%.
- Projected population growth to 2041 is 1.7% per annum.
Economic Growth:
- Queensland's economic growth was 3.1% in 2022, with a forecast of 2.4% in 2023.
Unemployment Rate:
- Greater Brisbane unemployment stood at 4.3% in March 2023, up by 57 bps from the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

Household Loan Commitments:
- New household loan commitments in Queensland were down by 4.2% in the March 2023 quarter, compared to a -11.1% drop in the prior quarter.
- First home buyer lending commitments increased by 26.6% in March 2023, representing 18.6% of all owner occupier loans.
Mortgage Rates:
- Average mortgage lending rates for owner occupiers increased by 3 bps to 6.27% for a 3-year fixed term, and 50 bps to 8.02% for a standard variable loan.
- For investors, 3-year fixed term rates decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%, while standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 8.60%.
Cash Rate Target:
- The official cash rate was raised by 50 bps to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Oxford Economics forecasts the cash rate to decrease to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.

Residential Market Forecast (2023–2025)

Category	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025f AVE
Economic Growth	4.4%	2.0%	0.3%	0.7%	2.6%	1.2%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.9%	4.2%	4.1%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%
Price Performance	23%	0%	-2%	4%	5%	2%
Rental Market	11%	14%	13%	9%	7%	10%

Source: Knight Frank Research and Oxford Economics

Key Contacts

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
- Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6659
Residential Site Sales: Blake Goddard
- Email: blake.goddard@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +617 3246 8848
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edwardsen
- Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6845
Residential: Erin van Tuil
- Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6699
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
- Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 700
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
- Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 62

Summary of Key Points

Sales Decline: Residential sales volume in Greater Brisbane fell by 30% in the March 2023 quarter, with a 22% annual decline.
Price Downtrend: Median residential value dropped to $713,000, reflecting a 3.8% annual decrease.
Rental Growth: Weekly median rents rose by 13.5% over the past year, with 0.8% vacancy rate.
Market Segmentation:
- Houses: Prices fell 4.9% year-on-year, while rents grew 12.0%.
- Apartments: Prices declined 1.6% over the year, but rents increased 16.3%.
Economic Outlook: Projected economic growth in Brisbane is 1.2% over 2023–2025, with 4.1% unemployment expected.
Interest Rates: Mortgage rates for owner occupiers rose, while investor rates saw mixed trends.
Population Growth: Annual population growth is 1.8%, with a slower projected growth rate of 1.7% to 2041.