宏观深度研究：如何衡量房地产对经济的贡献？-240703-国海证券-30页_2mb

The research report, "Measuring Real Estate's Contribution to the Economy," examines the evolution and current state of the real estate industry in China, highlighting the transition from traditional to new development models and the decline in its economic contribution. The analysis shows that real estate's GDP share decreased significantly from 72% in 2020 to 58% in 2023, contrasting with its historical role as an economic pillar. The industry's growth has historically outpaced GPD, driven by policy reforms like the 1998 housing market reforms and the "recruitment, bidding, and auction" land use process.

The report clarifies that under the new model, real estate's contribution should shift from capital expansion to asset operation and services, yet existing statistical methods fail to fully capture this. The current GDP calculation does not account for land acquisition costs and undervalues residents' housing services via cost estimation, leading to an underestimation of its economic role.

Politically, interventions often reference GDP growth, but recent reforms, such as 2003's designation of real estate as a pillar industry, have shaped its trajectory. International comparisons reveal lower service sector contributions, e.g., the UK includes nearly 10% GDP from real estate services.

In terms of industry links and investment, real estate propels 50+ upstream industries, with massive investment in materials and construction. For instance, it directly impacts cement, steel, and appliance sectors through real estate demand. However, since 2018, this influence has declined due to reduced land acquisition, which is not counted in GDP.

Services like property management and intermediation have headroom for growth. Despite high revenue in China's service sector—$1.5T in 2022—real estate's services currently contribute insignificantly to GDP (0.3-0.5%) due to limited statistical coverage. Globally, countries like the UK leverage these services far more, suggesting China's untapped potential in real estate operations.