2025-06-10-Bernstein-联发科（2454）_速评_联发科-若剔除外汇拖累_月度销售追踪略高于2025年第二季度市场预期_11页_349kb

MediaTek has been assigned an "Outperform" rating by Bernstein Research with a 1-year price target of NT$1,820. The key points from the analysis are:

• Current Performance: MediaTek's May sales were NT$45 billion, down 7% month-over-month but up 7% year-over-year. Combined revenue for April and May (NT$94 billion) is 61% of the Q2 2025 guidance midpoint. If June follows average seasonality, Q2 revenue is expected to be ~4% below both consensus and guidance midpoint, primarily due to a ~5% FX headwind.

• Growth Outlook: MediaTek is not a key supplier for Xiaomi's high-end SoCs, minimizing impact from internal chip developments. AI is a major growth driver, with the TPU project potentially generating billion-sized revenue in 2026. High probabilities of additional AI ASIC project wins starting from 2027, alongside opportunities in more ASIC project wins.

• Valuation: Currently trading at 16.3x trailing P/E, at parity with pre-cycle averages but lower than SOX. The stock has corrected ~10% this quarter due to concerns over China smartphone sales and FX headwinds. Forward P/E of 17x supports the NT$1,820 price target, with a dividend yield of ~4.5%. Financial metrics show steady revenue and margin growth in recent years.

• Risks: Competitive pressures from Qualcomm in 5G, slower global smartphone demand, diversification challenges, and broader semiconductor downturn could impact performance.

This report underscores MediaTek's potential for AI-driven growth despite current challenges, with a conservative rating reflecting the outlook.