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PTA and MEG Market Analysis Summary

The report provides an outlook on PTA and MEG markets for September 2025, based on demand-supply dynamics, cost factors, and inventory trends. For PTA, demand is expected to improve seasonally with increased fabric load and stable polyester operation, supporting positive sentiment. However, supply is projected to recover in September due to planned restarts after recent shutdowns, which may limit inventory depletion. Cost drivers are weak due to low processing fees and volatile raw material prices, leading to a short-term range-bound price expectation around ¥4680/ton. Recommended strategies include interval震荡 and contango reverse arbitrage. Key risks involve sharp drops in crude oil prices or below-expected demand.

For MEG, demand is stabilized but supply increase from oil-based sources could offset short-term inventory reduction. Cost differences between oil and coal-based production affect valuations. MEG is expected to maintain a price range of 4350-4550 yuan/ton and is recommended to be traded with a震荡 strategy. Risks mirror PTA, including crude oil volatility.

Overall, both markets face uncertainties from supply recovery and weak cost support, with focus on raw material and inventory data. The report emphasizes monitoring crude oil and PX crack spreads for decision-making.