20231023-德邦证券-九典制药-300705.SZ-盈利能力持续改善_公司发展迈入新阶段_3页_806kb

Jindian Pharmaceutical (300705SZ) reported strong third-quarter 2023 performance with revenue growth of 188% and net profit after tax increasing by 429% compared to the same period in 2022. This improvement is attributed to the successful launch and expansion of its key product, Loxonin sodium gel plaster, which has driven significant revenue and profit growth since its approval in 2017. The company's profitability improved markedly, with net profit margin rising to 16.6%, and sales expenses decreasing due to efficient operations.

In addition to Loxonin, the company secured another important product, Ketorolol gel plaster, which is expected to enter the market and contribute further to growth in the coming years. For example, if it joins the medical insurance directory, anticipation is high based on the precedents set by drugs like Loxonin. Moreover, Jindian Pharmaceutical is advancing other in-development products, such as Furbufen gel plaster, to build a comprehensive portfolio and sustain long-term performance.

Financial projections indicate that for 2023 and 2024, net profit is forecasted at CNY 3.8 to 4.9 billion, representing year-over-year increases of 42% and 29%, respectively. Valuation metrics show a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.8 and 17 times for 2023 and 2024, supporting a "Buy" recommendation with a target price of approximately 24.36 yuan based on current data. However, risks such as intensified competition, potential price cuts from centralized procurement reforms, or lower-than-expected sales volumes could impact performance.

Overall, the company demonstrates a robust growth trajectory, with a historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% over nearly six years and continued momentum from its specialized transdermal patch portfolio. The research underscores Jindian Pharmaceutical as a promising player in the pharmaceutical industry, maintaining its "Buy" rating.