2021-09-09-财信国际经济研究院-2021年8月CPI和PPI数据点评_疫情扰动有限_PPI将再冲高_5页_490kb

August 2021 CPI and PPI Data Analysis Summary

• Report Source: 财信研究院 Macro Team, dated September 9, 2021.
• Key Event: Released August 2021 CPI and PPI data; CPI rose slightly, while PPI surged to a high.

CPI Analysis:

• August CPI: Month-on-month +0.1%, year-on-year +0.8% (down 0.2 pp from July).
• Food prices contributed significantly to the decline, primarily due to falling pork prices (yoy down 44.9%), while non-food prices were less affected by the pandemic.
• Expected September CPI year-on-year growth at ~1.0%, amid easing supply constraints and stable core inflation.

PPI Analysis:

• August PPI: Month-on-month +0.7%, year-on-year +9.5% (up 0.5 pp from July), reaching the highest level since 2008.
• Drivers include domestic infrastructure demand, supply disruptions from COVID and environmental policies, and lagging oil price effects.
• Expected September PPI year-on-year at ~9.8%, with sustained high volatility but a potential decline by year-end.

Additional Insights:

• PPI-CPI gap widened to 8.7 percentage points, indicating industrial profit squeezing and potential risks to economic momentum.