20150318-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_74页_4mb

报告摘要

Asia Pacific Daily Summary

Core Content

The Asia Pacific Daily report covers financial updates, investment recommendations, and market analysis for various companies and regional indices, with a focus on the Daiwa Consumer and Gaming Conference 2015 in Hong Kong from April 21st to 23rd, 2015. It also highlights company roadshows, Daiwa's events calendar, and market performance data.

Main Investment Recommendations

China Resources Gas (1193 HK)
- Analyst: Dennis Ip
- Rating Change: Hold → Outperform
- Target Price: HKD23.00 (up 21.1% from HKD19.00)
- Upside: 12.2%
- Key Points:
  - The company is expected to benefit from a recent city-gate tariff adjustment and the potential injection of Binhai New Area (BNA).
  - Refocusing on M&A with the addition of Qingdao city is easing market concerns.
  - The stock is currently trading at 15x 2015E PER, near the midpoint of its China peers' range.
  - Earnings from Tianjin JV are expected to contribute over HKD100m in associate earnings for 2015.
  - Revised 2015-16E EPS by 8.5-10% due to improved M&A activity and lower margin cuts.
  - We expect a 10% cut to the city-gate tariff by 3Q15 if oil prices remain weak.
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (1052 HK)
- Analyst: Kelvin Lau
- Rating Change: Buy → Hold
- Target Price: HKD5.10 (down 13.6% from HKD5.90)
- Downside: 1.2%
- Key Points:
  - 2014 net profit (adjusted) was CNY587m, up 15% YoY but below expectations.
  - Lack of near-term catalysts leads to the downgrade.
  - The acquisition of Suiyuenan Expressway did not meet expectations, resulting in a lower net profit.
  - Management expects the expressway to break even on a consolidated basis in 2017.
  - The company may consider selling its stake in the Wuzhou port if the price is appropriate.
Other Companies with Buy Recommendations:
- MTR Corporation (66 HK): Growing dividend and reduced uncertainties.
- Want Want China (151 HK): Weak 2014 results are a good entry point.
- Best Pacific International (2111 HK): Long-term thesis remains intact.
- Hota Industrial Manufacturing (1536 TT): Sales momentum is expected to speed up in 2015.
- Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK): KK JV is positive for the group.
- WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK): Rights issue and bonus warrant issue proposed.
- Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS): Several share-price drivers.
- GCL Energy (451 HK): Positive outlook for the company.
- AMVIG (2300 HK): Positive outlook for the company.
- Cosmax Inc (192820 KS): Positive outlook for the company.
- China Suntien (956 HK): Positive outlook for the company.

Key Financial Highlights

China Resources Gas (1193 HK)
- Financial Summary (HKD):
  - Revenue: HKD28,095m (2014E), HKD33,181m (2015E), HKD38,967m (2016E)
  - Net Profit: HKD2,515m (2014E), HKD3,082m (2015E), HKD3,697m (2016E)
  - Core EPS (fully-diluted): HKD1.131 (2014E), HKD1.386 (2015E), HKD1.662 (2016E)
  - DPS: HKD0.194 (2014E), HKD0.251 (2015E), HKD0.318 (2016E)
  - PER: 18.1 (2014E), 14.8 (2015E), 12.3 (2016E)
  - PBR: 2.8 (2014E), 2.4 (2015E), 2.1 (2016E)
  - EV/EBITDA: 13.4 (2014E), 11.7 (2015E), 10.0 (2016E)
  - ROE: 16.5% (2014E), 17.6% (2015E), 18.2% (2016E)
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (1052 HK)
- Financial Summary (HKD):
  - Revenue: HKD28,095m (2014E)
  - Net Profit: HKD2,515m (2014E)
  - Core EPS (fully-diluted): HKD1.131 (2014E)
  - DPS: HKD0.194 (2014E)
  - PER: 14.8 (2015E)
  - PBR: 2.4 (2015E)
  - EV/EBITDA: 11.7 (2015E)
  - ROE: 16.5% (2014E)

Key Ratios

China Resources Gas (1193 HK)
- Gross-profit margin: 30.5% (2009), 29.3% (2010), 29.3% (2011), 31.2% (2012), 34.2% (2013), 31.8% (2014E), 31.2% (2015E), 30.4% (2016E)
- EBITDA margin: 16.5% (2009), 15.4% (2010), 14.8% (2011), 14.0% (2012), 15.9% (2013), 14.6% (2014E), 14.8% (2015E), 14.9% (2016E)
- Net profit margin: 11.2% (2009), 8.4% (2010), 8.3% (2011), 12.1% (2012), 9.7% (2013), 9.0% (2014E), 9.3% (2015E), 9.5% (2016E)
- ROE: 16.5% (2014E), 17.6% (2015E), 18.2% (2016E)
- ROCE: 23.0% (2009), 14.7% (2010), 13.2% (2011), 8.6% (2012), 12.0% (2013), 12.1% (2014E), 13.2% (2015E), 14.2% (2016E)
- Net debt to equity: 1.7 (2009), n.a. (2010), 12.4 (2011), 9.3 (2012), 28.7 (2013), 37.4 (2014E), 41.1 (2015E), 33.6 (2016E)
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (1052 HK)
- Gross-profit margin: 30.5% (2009), 29.3% (2010), 29.3% (2011), 31.2% (2012), 34.2% (2013), 31.8% (2014E)
- EBITDA margin: 16.5% (2009), 15.4% (2010), 14.8% (2011), 14.0% (2012), 15.9% (2013), 14.6% (2014E)
- Net profit margin: 11.2% (2009), 8.4% (2010), 8.3% (2011), 12.1% (2012), 9.7% (2013), 9.0% (2014E)
- ROE: 16.5% (2014E)
- ROCE: 23.0% (2009), 14.7% (2010), 13.2% (2011), 8.6% (2012), 12.0% (2013), 12.1% (2014E)
- Net debt to equity: 37.4 (2014E)

Regional Indices Performance

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS Growth 13E (%)	EPS Growth 14E (%)	PER 13E (x)	PER 14E (x)
TPX	0.8	7.4	11.6	8.5	14.6	17.0	14.8
HSCEI	0.2	(1.3)	(1.2)	4.6	9.4	7.0	6.4
HSI	(0.2)	(3.6)	1.3	3.3	10.5	11.2	10.1
KOSPI	2.1	3.5	6.0	29.0	6.1	10.7	10.1
TWSE	0.3	0.1	2.5	12.7	8.5	13.3	12.4
SENSEX*	1.1	(1.4)	4.5	16.4	18.0	18.3**	15.5**
FSSTI	(0.2)	(1.3)	0.1	5.1	9.4	13.8	12.7
FBMKLCI*	0.4	(1.2)	1.5	6.8	8.7	16.1**	14.8**
SET*	(0.2)	(4.7)	1.0	23.2	15.1	14.3**	12.5**
PCOMP*	0.8	(0.1)	7.7	12.0	12.5	20.5**	18.2**
JCI*	0.1	1.9	4.1	6.2	14.1	16.0**	14.0**
AS51	0.8	(0.3)	8.0	(0.1)	3.4	16.6	16.0

Company Profile

China Resources Gas (1193 HK): One of the leading city-gas distributors in China, owning 191 projects as of June 2014, with a focus on economically developed and densely populated cities.