2021-10-17-瑞士信贷集团-电梯展电梯专家日的主要趋势和主题更新_从城市的视角_23页_883kb

报告摘要

Europe: New installations show moderate growth, driven by stable demand post-GFC. Maintenance base grows steadily; 2021 outlook: 5-7% NI + modernization growth; 2022+: steady growth.
North America: Similar trends to Europe, with sharper 2020 recovery. NI growth mid-low teens in 2021; 2022+: healthy but moderating growth, focusing on maintenance.
China: New installations grew 5x (2005-2014); 2021 outlook: 5% NI + modernization growth, limited 2020 impact. However, regulatory policies (Three Red Lines) pressure developers, affecting land purchases/start rates. Evergrande’s situation noted, but CS views this as an isolated incident.

Digitalization: Provides opportunities via IIoT, creating new revenue streams for agile players. Risks include reduced profits from traditional digital profit pools.
Industry Newcomers: Firms like Bosch (Elevator Cloud) and Lift AI are entering via software and IoT platforms to enhance services.
Raw Materials Inflation: Steel, copper, aluminum, and plastic prices rose significantly (up to 100+%), impacting profitability through 2024 due to lagged purchase cycles.
Industry Consolidation: M&A activity (e.g., Toshiba to Hitachi, acquisitions in US market) consolidates major players and smaller ISPs.

Ever-growing installed base: Annual growth c.4-4.5% (2021-2023), supported by rising elevator density.
Regulation-driven maintenance: Subscription-based, resilient to crises.
Asset-light model: Outsourced production, positive working capital.
High returns: Big4 CFROI avg. c.23%.
Structural growth: Urbanization and building density drive market expansion.

Big4 (Kone, Schindler, Otis, Thyssen): Dominant in NI, fragmented in maintenance. Kone has high Asian revenue concentration.
Regional Market Share: NI is consolidated (Big4 ~75% share), but maintenance is fragmented. EMEA (30%) and Americas (29%) are major markets.

Global E&E value: €65-70bn (2020). Maintenance dominates (54% market value), with higher margins (c.38.6% in China).
By geography: China (~30%), EMEA (30%), Americas (29%).
Profitability: China’s NI margin superior globally.