20230710-大越期货-沪铝早报_13页_2mb

Alumina Market Update - Summary

The daily report for aluminum (沪铝) presents a mixed outlook, with factors from supply, demand, and market trends creating both bullish and bearish signals.

Key Points:

• Fundamental Analysis: Energy crisis and carbon neutrality policies are key supply-side disturbances, reducing electrolytic aluminum production. Demand is weak, with real estate remaining soft; overall sentiment is neutral.
• Basis: Current spot prices are 18,210, with a basis of 365 points, indicating a positive premium to futures.
• Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 3,940 tons to 102,019 tons, while LME inventory decreased. High rod inventories persist but are slightly declining; this is seen as mixed.
• Price Trend: The market closed below the 20-day moving average, with the moving average trending downward, pointing to bearish momentum.
• Positioning:主力持仓 shows net short positions decreasing, suggesting potential buying interest.
• Outlook: Long-term factors like carbon neutrality and geopolitical events (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict) support higher prices, while short-term issues like high inventories and economic uncertainty lead to price volatility. Market is expected to remain震荡 (volatile).

Key Drivers:

• 利多 (Bullish): Carbon neutrality limiting capacity expansion, geopolitical disruptions affecting supply, and higher costs from energy crisis.
• 利空 (Bearish): High inventory levels, weak consumption, and global economic uncertainty depressing demand.