2025-06-16-Jefferies-拉丁美洲日报_12页_547kb

报告摘要

Date: June 16, 2025
Analysts: Alex Wright, Alejandro Demichelis, Pedro Baptista, etc.

Alpargatas (ALPA3/ALPA4)
- Reason: Strategic partnership with Eastman Group for Havaianas distribution in North America to reduce costs and leverage scale. International EBITDA is in turnaround, expected to reach breakeven by 2026. Rothy's acquisition shows strong potential.
Alsea (ALSEA)
- Reason: Focus on growth in Mexico (70% EBITDA contribution), high-growth markets for Starbucks and Domino’s, and strategic expansion via new openings. Mexico unit growth targets supported by franchise operators.
Mexico Equities (GMEXICOB, COPEC)
- GMexico: Divesting highways business for $0.4bn, with implied 10x EV/EBITDA. Trading at ~45% NAV discount.
- Copec: LatAm pulp sector benefiting from China price bottoms ($500/t hardwood, $700/t softwood). Higher operating rates for softwood provide cost support.

MercadoLibre (MELI)
- Reason: Upgrade to $2,800 price target but downgraded to Hold due to strong past performance and reassessment of long-term TAMs (commerce, ads, etc.). Market sentiment cautious amidst TAM uncertainties.

Mexico Equity Flows: Record foreign outflows of $1.8bn in May 2025 (total 2024: $5.3bn). Economic deceleration and high public debt risk sentiment.
Currency Impact: MXN depreciation may pressure Alsea’s gross margins and EBITDA growth.

Transformational Deals: Alpargatas’ shift to distributor model, AMX’s sale of Ecuador operations.
Pulp Market Recovery: China pulp demand may bottom in 2025, supported by trade tensions easing.
Currency & Macroeconomic Risks: Mexico’s economic slowdown and foreign flows remain key concerns.

Note: The report highlights Buy/Hold recommendations based on valuation, operational improvements, and sector trends in Latin America.

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