2025-06-13-Jefferies-拉丁美洲日报_14页_655kb

Latin America Equity Research Summary

Recommendations & Views by Company:

• RD Health / Assai: Buys recommended. Proposal to sell OTC medicines in supermarkets supported by regulators. OTC sales represent a significant portion of their business.
• Alsea: Buy recommended. Plans to divest non-core brands. Positive momentum driven by Europe, Mexico, and USD impact. Focus on core SSBs (Starbucks, Domino's). Update scheduled.
• Arcos Dorados (ARCO): Buy recommended. Positive outlook for McDonald's SSBs in Argentina/Chile. Near-term US SSS acceleration expected. Global unit growth potential. Virtual CEO meeting inbound.
• CSAV Vapores (VAPORES): Buy recommended. Container shipping deal flow due to Middle East uncertainty; spare capacity normalizes post-war. CSAV provides exposure to shipping/capital generation, valued significantly below peers (HLAG). Virtual meeting inbound.
• Quiñenco (QUINENC): Buy recommended. Strong Q1 driven by solid performance across subsidiaries (CSAV, Hapag-Lloyd, Banco Chile, retail). Dividend yield attractive ($1.96 billion). Significant NAV ($8.9 billion) discounted YTD. Investment cycle ongoing. Virtual meeting inbound.
• Itaúsa (ITSA): Buy recommended. NAV grew (5% YoM, 8bps compression YoY). Strong dividends (9.6% YoT). Payout capacity expected to remain high. Expects tax reform to partially narrow NAV discount. Virtual CEO meeting inbound.
• Itaú Unibanco: High quality franchise, 22.5% RoE. Strong fundamentals despite peer underperformance. Positioned for regulated intermediation. Top tier valuation in local banking.

Valuation & Growth Focus:

• Strong emphasis on long-term NAV growth drivers (NAV growth YoT: Alsea +15%, ITSA +85%).
• Utilization of discounted assets (Quiñenco, Itaúsa, CRA) to assess intrinsic value, with potential for catalysts (tax reform, SAAM liquidity, HLAG appreciation, NTS dividends).
• Focus on margins: currency (USD in Alsea), commodity prices (beef), and input costs.
• Dividend yields are attractive for several stocks (CSAV: 16%, ITSA: 9.6%, Quiñenco: 10%, ARCO: Currently low but potential upside, MCD).
• Consideration of competitive advantages (MCD brand/efficiency, pharmacy/convenience store trends).

Risks & Market Context:

• Typically managed discount rates achieved.
• Catalysts discussed include company-specific events (ITSA CEO meeting, Alsea update) and diversification into ESG funds.
• Broader risks include shipping market dynamic (Middle East), global economic conditions, regulatory changes (tax reform in Brazil), consumer spending shifts, and Latin American institutional strategies affecting investor perception.

Disclaimer:
Jefferies is an investment bank covering these companies and may have conflicts of interest. The views expressed are those of the analysts at the time of writing and are subject to change. Ratings (Buy, Hold, Underperform) are defined. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Note: This summary focuses on the key recommendations, growth drivers, valuations, and risks highlighted in the original research note regarding Jefferies clients and investments in Latin America.