2025-05-29-Jefferies-拉丁美洲_日报_17页_577kb

报告摘要

US Court of International Trade rules Trump's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs was illegal, ruling tariffs not "unusual and extraordinary." Five key questions arise: Supreme Court appeal timeline, nationwide injunction legality, alternative tariffs pathways, budget negotiations impact, and trading partners reactions.
MercadoLibre (MELI) applying for a banking license in Argentina to expand digital services, aiming to become Latin America's largest digital bank. This includes enhanced loan offerings and digital tools.
SQM faces challenges in lithium pricing but remains bullish on growth. Lithium segment outlook is softer, but the company is progressing with a deal to extend its Atacama lithium concession, targeting higher value.

Copper production trends show mixed results: Latin American miners like GExico and SCCO reported solid 1Q25 performance, driven by improved mine output, while global supply growth is flat year-over-year.
CAAP increases control over Italian airports through acquisition of a 25% stake in CAI, enhancing its influence in Pisa and Firenze airports. Italian operations contribute about 7% of EBITDA.
Mexico sees high buyback activity, with companies like Gruma and AMX allocating funds for shareholder returns. More buybacks expected from firms like FBemsa and Laureate Education.

Analysts suggest ongoing legal challenges for tariffs could affect budget negotiations and trade policies, with possible reactions from major trading partners.
Equity research ratings: Buy for MELI, SQM, CAAP, GMexico, SCCO, and others, with Holds on Bimbo and others. Price targets and valuation metrics discussed, emphasizing medium-term risks and rewards.

Container rates strengthen due to pent-up demand and forward-buying, though concerns about Red Sea/Suez Canal capacity expansion persist.
Global commodity trends highlight opportunities in lower corn prices for Gruma, while challenges in lithium and copper markets noted.

For full details, refer to the original report analysis.

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