2025-06-04-Jefferies-拉丁美洲_日报_12页_250kb

Key Recommendations:

• GeoPark (Buy) - Poison pill introduced to delay value unlocking, giving new CEO time to articulate strategy.
• Heineken (Buy) - Robust outlook, driven by Asia/Africa growth, with P/E 14.9x vs global staples.
• Alpargatas (Buy) - Strong turnaround, improved margins, international opportunities via Rothy's acquisition.
• Itausa (Buy) - Valuable NAV discount, strong dividend yield, positive NAV growth despite fiscal risks.

Economic Context:

• Brazil: Real rates down ~200bps from February high; car sales up 16% YoY (May-2025) supported by Chinese brands like BYD; new truck sales down 5% YoY.
• Global Influence: Brazil benefiting from EM flows, but risks from fiscal measures and election spending.

Market Factors:

• Interest rates easing with potential Central Bank action.
• Brazil's car rental market shifting towards electric vehicles, but truck sales pressureing Simpar (Hold).

Risks:

• GeoPark standoff with Pampa may escalate.
• Election-related spending and fiscal tightening could affect consumer and industrial segments.
  *Regulatory changes, like upcoming IOF tax hikes, may impact market sentiment.

Valuation & Dividends:

• High dividend yields across companies (e.g., Itausa at 9.6%), with strong Buy-rated opportunities in consumer and financials.