2025-06-02-Jefferies-拉丁美洲_日报_17页_700kb

Latin America Equity Research Summary

Date: June 2, 2025

Overview

• This report covers key companies and market trends in Latin America, focusing on airlines, energy, steel, and financials. Jefferies maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several entities, highlighting growth potential amid temporary headwinds.

Key Companies

Pampa (Buy)

• Acquired 10.17% stake in GeoPark (GPRK), seen as opportunistic to internationalize upstream business at a 40% NAV discount.
• LTM EBITDA: $969M; production: 7k boe/d; EBITDA/boe: $1.0.

GeoPark (Buy)

• Pampa is now its second-largest shareholder; assets complement Pampa's natural gas reserves.
• LTM EBITDA: $393M; production: 8.2k boe/d; EBITDA/boe: $1.2.

CAAP (Buy)

• Passenger traffic growth (14% YTD in Argentina, driven by international flights).
• Adj. EBITDA: $157.9M in 1Q25; Buy recommendation with $26 PT.

Dexco (Buy)

• Transformation includes entry into dissolving wood pulp; strong forestry integration.
• EBITDA: $649M (other divisions); wood panels fully integrated.

Gerdau (Hold)

• Limited impact from US steel tariffs; US operations benefit from rising prices.
• Brazil shipments: 2,000k tons; N.Am shipments: 3,500k tons.

Tenaris (Buy)

• US OCTG pricing declined 1% in May; reduced 2025/26 EBITDA forecasts due to lower volumes.
• Buy recommendation with €21 PT.

Market Insights

Airports & Airlines

• CAAP shows strong passenger growth (10k+ passengers/month in key markets).
• Argentina: Air travel regulator changes may delay contract rebalancing.

Steel Sector

• Gerdau less affected by US tariffs due to US-focused operations.
• Brazil imports 20-25% of steel; higher tariffs may reduce demand.

Brazilian Banking

• Bank credit grew 11.5% YoY (adjusted for FX), but NPLs and spreads remain elevated.
• New private payroll loans: Origination volumes reached BRL5.6B at 59% rates.
• High corporate disintermediation (debt-to-GDP ratio %157.6).

Fintech & Open Banking

• Brazil: ~33% adult population uses Open Banking; trends encouraging despite challenges.
• Mexico: Fintechs like Nubank lead deposits ($9B market share).

Argentina

• Shift in demand deposits: Bank deposits rising as wallets lose traction.

Investment Recommendations

• Buy: CAAP, Pampa, GeoPark, Tenaris, Dexco.
• Hold: Gerdau.
• Several companies are undervalued relative to peers (e.g., CAAP trades at 5.4x 2026E EV/EBITDA).

Financial Highlights

• Passenger Growth: CAAP Argentina International traffic up 34% YTD.
• EBITDA Trends: Pampa total EBITDA: $969M; Gerdau Brazil shipments fell 2% YoY.
• Tariffs Impact: US tariffs unlikely to significantly affect Gerdau due to US operations dominance.

For detailed data, refer to Exhibits 1-16.