2025-06-09-Jefferies-拉丁美洲日报_16页_437kb

Summary of Latin America Equity Research

Overview of Report

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Focus Areas: Analysis of credit card markets, retail sales, airports, mining, and retail food companies in Latin America, based on recent data and trends.

Colombia's Credit Card Market

• Total outstanding cards: 14.5 million (average limit: US$2,000; average limit usage: 33%).
• Monthly TPV: US$2.4 billion, with an implied revenue yield of 19.3%.
• Nubank leads in growth as the second-largest issuer in Q1 2025, with 6.1% market share in revenues and a net yield of 15.5% for interchange revenue.
• Key players: Bancolombia dominates most metrics, while fintechs like Nubank and Stori note growth.

Brazil Retail Analysis

• Nominal sales grew 7% in May, up 1% real, following declines earlier in 2025; the second consecutive positive month represents a recovery turnaround.
• E-commerce growth outpaced physical retail (4% vs. 8%).
• Mother's Day sales increased 6.3% year-over-year, driven by clothing and jewelry sectors.

LatAm Airports Expansion

• Chilean government plans a US$4 billion expansion of Santiago Airport, tripling capacity by 2050.
• Focus on Integrated Players: Companies like Vinci are expected to be active, contrasting with European pure-play airports that focus on deleveraging.
• Potential delay in the project due to election risks.

LatAm Mining (Focus: Copper)

• Copper price reached near key $5/pound threshold as LME inventories are aggressively drawn down.
• If the rally persists, mining stocks may see a catch-up, but current valuations show de-rating this year.

Restaurant and Food Retail Updates

• Arcos Dorados appoints new CEO, with focus on expansion after a weak Q1; store openings target over 1,000 units in 10 years.
• Assaí: Conversion to Atacarejo formats continues, driving margin expansion and deleveraging. Valuation maintained at PT R$14.0.
• Alpargatas (Buy): CFO meeting scheduled; strong brand recognition in Brazil with turnaround in margins, ahead of international expansion like Rothy's acquisition.

Average Ratings and Analysts

• Analysts cover various companies from Buy to Hold, highlighting trends.

Key Markets for Next Year (Recommendation Summary) Growth expectations and valuation focus on maturity cycles, exchange rates, capex, etc.