2025-06-05-Jefferies-拉丁美洲_日报_12页_289kb

MercadoLibre's DCF-driven price target is raised to $2,800 from $2,450, reflecting higher profit and cash flows in 2029E. However, strong performance in 2023-24 and a 50% YTD share increase lead to a downgrading to Hold. MELI is seen as a high-quality long-term holding with growth opportunities in commerce, acquiring, credit, and advertising, but peers at the top end of valuation and long-term estimates face risks from competition and economic factors. PRIO's May-25 output rose 9% MoM to 99.8kboe/d due to the Frade field's recovery and stabilized production at other fields. Production at Frade remains below its 1Q25 level due to gas compression issues resolved expected soon, and workover wells are beginning at Tubarao Martelo/Polvo cluster. Brazil's food retail basic basket is up 10.83% YoY driven by coffee and beans. The IPCA-15 inflation slowed to 0.36% in May, below estimates, and consumer sentiment improved during Easter week. Top food retailers Atacadao and Assai face high leverage, valued at multiples that imply opportunities. Alsea is recommended as a Buy, posting strong recovery and with an engagement with its CFO. Expansion plans include reaching 7,500 outlets from 4,800 by 2035, with Mexico as the core, and expects low-double-digit growth in 2025 despite currency headwinds. Metalurgica Gerdau's NAV discount widened to 21.9% YoY, but progressive buying and dividends are supporting its position as a Hold.