20230720-浙商证券-2023年6月财政数据的背后_卖地收入延续低迷_关注财政货币配合_7页_447kb

Summary of 2023 July Macro Deep Report: Fiscal Data and Economic Outlook

The report analyzes June 2023 fiscal data, highlighting that low base effects are driving up general public budget revenues but sales land income remains weak, disrupting infrastructure funding. Key points include:

• General Public Budget Revenue: Revenue improved due to low base, supported by high growth in taxes, but the tax structure indicates economic weakness, with low consumption and corporate income tax due to subdued consumer spending and business challenges.
• General Public Budget Expenditure: Spending intensity is high, with focus on social security, healthcare, and education. Fiscal policy is proactive and forward-looking, aiming to stimulate growth through targeted allocations.
• Government Funds: Land sales income continues to decline, and while special bonds are accelerated, there may be a need for quasi-fiscal tools like policy banks to bridge funding gaps.
• Key Focus for 2023 Second Half: Policy emphasis on reducing corporate burdens, fostering coordination between fiscal and monetary tools, and managing local debt risks.
• Recommendations: Moderately allocate public urban investment bonds, especially those tied to strong fiscal supports.
• Risks: Potential for economic slowdown, policy misalignment, or external factors amplifying uncertainties.

This summary captures the report's core insights based on the provided content.