2022-01-04-瑞士信贷集团-2022年中国医疗保健展望_冬天来了_春天还会远吗_87页_3mb

China Healthcare Outlook 2022: Summary

Key Themes:

• Stable Policies: Expect no major surprises in 2022.
• Innovation Driven Divergence: Biotech and CRO firms lead growth due to higher innovation levels.
• Booming BD Scene: Out-licensing and in-licensing deals to remain active.
• HealthTech/AI Growth: AI applications in drug discovery and diagnostics are increasing.

Top Picks:

• Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK): Leading CRO/CMO, with strong R&D demand.
• BeiGene (BGNE.OQ): Strong global potential and pipeline.
• I-Mab Biopharma (IMAB.OQ): Near-term catalysts from clinical data and potential deals.

Stocks to Watch:

• Hualan (002007.SZ): Strong influenza vaccine sales.
• Sinopharm (1099.HK): Growth in distribution and retail pharmacy segments.

Sector Outlook:

• Pharma: Focus on generics and pricing pressure.
• Biotech: Innovation and globalization are key catalysts.
• CXO: Fundamentally strong but facing geopolitical risks.
• Medical Devices: Globalization and surgical volume concerns.
• Healthcare Services: DRG/DIP implementation poses challenges.
• TCM: Defensive positioning and slow growth.

Key Catalysts:

• January Healthcare Conference: Potential deal announcements.
• PD-1 FDA AdCom Meeting: February 2022 decision.
• Asco 2022: Data readouts from biotech/pharma.

Risk Highlights:

• Geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty from GPO/NRDL, and valuation adjustments remain key risks.

Valuation Notes:

• Healthcare sector is undergoing adjustment, with diverging performance across subsectors.
• Biotech and CRO subsectors are favored due to innovation potential.