20181213-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Wheat Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global wheat market outlook for the 2018/19 marketing year. It includes updates on domestic and international supply, demand, exports, and prices, along with insights on key producing countries like Australia.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Export Projections: U.S. all-wheat exports for the 2018/19 marketing year are trimmed by 25 million bushels to 1,000 million bushels. This is primarily due to historically low export sales in the first half of the marketing year.
Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW): HRW exports are reduced by 40 million bushels, contributing significantly to the overall export cut. Soft red winter (SRW) and hard red spring (HRS) exports are increased by 10 million and 5 million bushels, respectively.
Ending Stocks: U.S. ending stocks are raised by 25 million bushels to 974 million bushels. The stock-to-use ratio is now 45 percent, down from 55 percent in the previous marketing year.
Season-Average Farm Price: The 2018/19 season-average farm price is raised 5 cents per bushel to $5.15 at the midpoint. The price range is adjusted by 15 cents on the low end and 5 cents on the high end.
Upcoming Reports: USDA, NASS will release three key reports in January: Crop Production, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. These reports will provide updated data on production, stocks, and planting progress.

U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet

The 2018/19 U.S. wheat balance sheet shows minimal changes from the previous month.
The U.S. export projection for the 2018/19 marketing year is 1,000 million bushels, which is 25 million bushels less than the previous projection.
U.S. wheat exports for the 2018/19 international trade year (July-June) are expected to be 29.0 million tons, but the pace of export sales remains slow.

Winter Wheat

Winter wheat planting progress in the U.S. is slightly behind the 5-year average, with 95 percent of the crop planted by the week ending November 25.
Winter wheat emergence is also behind schedule, with only 86 percent of the crop emerged compared to the 5-year average of 92 percent.
Despite the slow progress, conditions for the winter wheat crop are slightly better than the same period in 2017.
A significant portion of the 2019 winter wheat crop is expected to be below initial expectations due to delays in planting and some farmers opting out of production.

Spring Wheat and Durum

Spring Wheat: Exports are increased by 5 million bushels to 300 million bushels, representing a 31 percent increase from the previous year.
Durum: Exports remain unchanged at 30 million bushels, up from 17.5 million bushels in the previous marketing year.

Grain Transportation

Transportation costs for U.S. wheat have increased year-to-year and quarter-to-quarter, but they have not been prohibitive.
The average cost of moving wheat by truck to a rail-served grain elevator is down 13 percent in the third quarter and 19 percent year-to-year, mainly due to lower truck demand.
Despite rising costs, U.S. wheat exports are expected to meet the current forecast due to the depletion of competitor stocks and the rise in export prices.

International Outlook

Global Wheat Production: Global wheat production is lowered by 0.1 million tons to 733.4 million tons due to reduced Australian output, which is offset by increased production in Canada and Mexico.
Australia: Australia is experiencing its worst drought since 2009/10, leading to a 0.5 million ton reduction in wheat production to 17.0 million tons. Wheat feed use is at a record level of 5.5 million tons, driven by high demand for grain feeding due to drought-affected pastures and strong prices for wool and lamb meat.
EU Exports: The European Union's wheat exports are reduced by 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million tons, the lowest since 2011/12. This is due to slow export pace and intra-EU grain flows.
Russia: Russian wheat exports are raised by 1.5 million tons to 36.5 million tons, reflecting strong sales pace.
Wheat Trade Year: Wheat trade for the 2018/19 international trade year is projected to decrease by 0.8 million tons to 178.4 million tons.

Key Information

Export Sales: U.S. export sales in the first half of the marketing year are at 41 percent of the total, compared to the 10-year average of 52 percent.
Domestic Use: Total domestic use of wheat is projected at 1,149 million bushels, with a slight decrease in food, seed, and feed use in some regions.
Prices: The U.S. season-average farm price is expected to be $5.15 per bushel, reflecting a 5-cent increase from the previous month.
Stocks: U.S. ending stocks are at 974 million bushels, with a stock-to-use ratio of 45 percent.
Global Trends: Global wheat feed use is projected to be slightly higher than last month, with Australia and other regions showing increased demand for grain feeding.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: U.S. all-wheat exports, marketing year total and first-half share of total.
Figure 2: U.S. wheat ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio.
Map A: Wheat production changes for 2018/19, December 2018.
Map B: Wheat ending stocks changes for 2018/19, December 2018.
Map C: Wheat trade year export changes for 2018/19, December 2018.
Table 1: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 12/13/2018.
Table 2: U.S. wheat by class: market year supply and disappearance, 12/13/2018.