20220714-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2022.7.14_16页_504kb

报告摘要

Wheat Outlook Summary - July 2022

Core Content Overview

This report provides an updated outlook for U.S. and global wheat markets for the 2022/23 marketing year, highlighting changes in production, exports, and prices. It also discusses the implications of these changes on domestic and international supply and demand dynamics.

Domestic Outlook

Production Forecasts

Total U.S. wheat production for 2022/23 is forecast at 1.781 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels from the June forecast.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) production is estimated at 585 million bushels, a 22% decrease from the previous year.
Soft Red Winter (SRW) production is projected at 376 million bushels, up 4% from last year, marking the highest level in 8 years.
White wheat production is up 42% from the previous year, driven by improved conditions in the Pacific Northwest.
- White Winter production is slightly reduced to 240 million bushels from 242 million.
- White Spring production is estimated for the first time at 46 million bushels, up 36% from the previous year.
Durum and other Spring Wheat production is forecast at 580 million bushels, a 57% increase from the previous year's drought-impacted crop.

Exports and Imports

2022/23 all-wheat exports are projected at 800 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous month due to larger domestic supplies and improved competitiveness.
2021/22 all-wheat exports are estimated at 804 million bushels, slightly down from the previous month.
Imports for 2022/23 are lowered to 110 million bushels, reflecting larger domestic supplies.
2021/22 imports are estimated unchanged at 95 million bushels.

Prices

The 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at a record $10.50 per bushel, down $0.25 from the previous month.
2021/22 SAFP is lowered to $7.63 based on final price data and marketing weights.

Seed Use

2021/22 seed use is revised 4 million bushels lower to 60 million due to smaller planted areas.
2022/23 seed use is raised 2 million bushels to 68 million, partly due to delayed planting of the Hard Red Spring (HRS) crop.

Stocks

Ending stocks for 2022/23 are estimated at 639 million bushels, up 12 million from the previous month.
Ending stocks for 2021/22 are at 627 million bushels.
Stocks-to-use ratio for 2022/23 is projected at 39.1%, the lowest in 9 years.

International Outlook

Global Production

Global wheat production for 2022/23 is projected down 1.8 million metric tons (MT) to 771.6 million MT.
EU, Ukraine, and Argentina have downward revisions in production, while Canada, Russia, and the U.S. have upward revisions.

Global Consumption

Global consumption is revised down 1.4 million MT to 781.5 million MT, primarily due to lower feed and residual use.
Feed and residual use is down 1.8 million MT to 151.3 million MT.
Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is up 0.4 million MT to 630.2 million MT.

Global Trade

2022/23 global trade (exports and imports) remains at a record level and is revised higher this month.
Imports are adjusted up 1.4 million MT to 202.7 million MT, driven by increased demand from the EU, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Algeria.
Exports are projected to increase by 1.2 million MT to 206.6 million MT, with Canada and the U.S. leading the increase due to improved competitiveness.
Argentina and the EU experience export reductions due to smaller domestic crops.

Key Trends and Insights

HRW faces tighter supplies and lower competitiveness with corn, leading to smaller feed and residual use.
SRW has the highest production since 2014/15, with exports up 11% to 125 million bushels and prices competitive with other major exporters.
White wheat is projected to have the largest production due to improved conditions in the Pacific Northwest.
Durum production is up more than double from the previous year, with exports projected to more than double to 30 million bushels.
Consumer prices for cereal products rose 11% year-over-year, with cash wheat prices in Kansas City up 63%.
Global trade remains robust, with U.S. and Canada playing key roles due to improved production and competitive pricing.