20210914-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2021.09.14_11页_263kb

Wheat Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global wheat market conditions as of September 14, 2021, including production, consumption, trade, and price trends for the 2021/22 marketing year.

U.S. Wheat Outlook

• Export Commitments: As of August 2 (week 14), total U.S. wheat commitments (accumulated exports + outstanding sales) stand at 9.8 million metric tons, down 23% from the same period last year. However, total exports for the full marketing year are projected down by only 12%.
• Export Commitment Percentage: U.S. wheat commitments represent 41% of the projected marketing year total, down from 47% in the previous year.
• Export Trends: Exports are expected to improve in the second half of the marketing year due to tighter supplies from competitors, especially in Canada and potential export tax changes in Russia.
• Import Forecast: The 2021/22 all-wheat import forecast is reduced by 10 million bushels to 135 million, mainly due to lower production in Canada and Russia, which are key suppliers.
• Class-Specific Adjustments:
  • Hard Red Winter (HRW): Exports cut by 5 million bushels to 355 million.
  • Soft Red Winter (SRW): Exports boosted by 5 million bushels to 120 million.
• Domestic Use:
  • Food Use: Increased by 4 million bushels to 400 million for HRW and decreased by 2 million bushels to 82 million for durum, partly due to a slow pace of durum imports.
  • Feed and Residual: Adjusted lower to offset increased food use.
• Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP): Reduced by $0.10 to $6.60, reflecting lower-than-expected July farmgate prices. July is typically the largest month of wheat marketing, which limits the chance of reaching the previously estimated target.
• Supply and Use Balance:
  • Total Supply: 2,676 million bushels.
  • Total Use: 2,061 million bushels.
  • Ending Stocks: Projected at 615 million bushels, the lowest in 8 years.

Global Wheat Outlook

• Production: Revised up by 3.4 million metric tons to 780.3 million for the 2021/22 marketing year. The U.S. crop remains at 46.2 million MT.
• Major Production Increases:
  • Australia: Revised up to 31.5 million MT due to higher yields.
  • India: Revised up to 109.5 million MT due to higher yields and harvested area.
  • China: Revised up to 136.9 million MT due to increased harvested area.
• Production Decreases:
  • Argentina: Revised down by 500,000 MT due to dry conditions.
  • Canada: Revised down by 1 million MT due to lower yields and poor growing conditions.
• European Union (EU):
  • Production increased by 400,000 MT to 139.0 million.
  • Bulgaria and Romania saw record production increases of 650,000 MT and 300,000 MT, respectively.
  • Germany had a downward revision of 500,000 MT to 22.1 million due to lower yields.
• Global Consumption: Increased by 2.1 million MT to 786.9 million, driven by higher feed and residual use (up 1.8 million MT to 159.2 million).
• Feed and Residual Use:
  • China and Australia: Upward revisions due to larger crops and competitive prices.
  • Kazakhstan and Pakistan: Increased feed and residual use by 200,000 MT and 1.2 million MT, respectively.
• Global Trade:
  • Revised up slightly to 200.9 million MT for the July-June Trade Year.
  • Australia and India saw increased exports.
  • Canada saw a decrease in exports by 500,000 MT due to poor crop prospects.
• Imports:
  • Revised up by 910,000 MT to 197.1 million MT for the 2021/22 marketing year.
  • Iran, Kazakhstan, and Bangladesh saw the largest revisions due to lower production and higher demand.
• Global Ending Stocks:
  • Revised up by 3.7 million MT to 292.6 million MT for 2020/21, mainly due to Canada and the EU.
  • Revised up by 4.2 million MT to 283.2 million MT for 2021/22, primarily due to higher beginning stocks and production forecasts in India, Australia, and the EU.

Key Points

• U.S. wheat exports are expected to recover as competitor supplies tighten, particularly in Canada and Russia.
• Global wheat production is at a record high, driven by increases in Australia, India, and China, with some reductions in Argentina and Canada.
• Feed and residual use is the main driver of increased global wheat consumption.
• Global ending stocks are projected to remain low but have seen slight improvements due to revised production and supply data.
• The U.S. wheat market faces challenges in the early months of the marketing year, but the outlook is positive for the remainder of the year.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Summarizes the U.S. wheat supply and use balance for 2021/22, highlighting revisions to food use, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: Lists global wheat production revisions for September 2021, including major increases in Australia, India, and China.
• Table 3: Details export adjustments for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 trade years, showing increases in Australia and India, and decreases in Canada and the EU.
• Table 4: Summarizes import adjustments, with the largest changes in Iran, Kazakhstan, and Bangladesh.

Figures Summary

• Figure 1: Compares cumulative export sales through September 2 and full marketing year exports, showing a lag in early shipments but potential for improvement.
• Figure 2: Illustrates the low wheat-to-corn price spread in China, indicating wheat's competitiveness in feed rations.
• Figure 3: Highlights the upward revisions in ending stocks for major exporters in 2020/21 and 2021/22, offering some relief to global stocks.