20171114-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2017.11.14_20页_1mb

Wheat Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the global and domestic wheat market conditions for the 2017/18 marketing year, highlighting key changes in production, exports, imports, and utilization.

Main Points

Global Wheat Exports

• Global wheat exports are raised by 250,000 metric tons this month to 182.2 million metric tons.
• Russian exports are increased by 500,000 tons to 33.0 million tons, due to a strong early trade pace and a rail tariff discount introduced by Russian Railways.
• U.S. exports are lifted by 500,000 tons to 26.5 million tons on a trade-year basis and 1,000 million bushels on a marketing-year basis, driven by substantial sales to Iraq and Ethiopia.
• Australian and Brazilian exports are reduced due to poor crop conditions and lower production, which are more than offset by increased Russian and U.S. sales.

Domestic Wheat Outlook

• The U.S. domestic wheat use is projected at 1,136.0 million bushels, with food use at 950.0 million bushels.
• Ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year are lowered by 25 million bushels to 935.3 million bushels due to increased use.
• All-wheat season-average farm price remains at $4.60 per bushel, unchanged from the previous month.
• Hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS) wheat exports are the main contributors to the increase in U.S. exports.
• HRW exports for 2017/18 are projected at 415 million bushels, which is 40 million bushels below the 2016/17 estimate.

Wheat Use and Stocks

• World wheat use for 2017/18 is projected slightly higher at +0.4 million tons.
• Feed use is reduced by 0.7 million tons due to decreased demand in countries like Vietnam, where swine industry growth has slowed due to trade restrictions with China.
• Global wheat stocks are down by 0.6 million tons to 267.5 million tons, reflecting higher exports and lower U.S. stocks.

Country-Specific Highlights

• Russia has harvested 99% of its wheat area, with a +1.0 million ton increase in production due to favorable weather conditions.
• EU wheat production is also increased, with France seeing the largest rise.
• Pakistan and Brazil have seen reductions in production due to adverse weather and disease.
• South Africa has reduced its production slightly due to lower-than-expected yields.

Key Information

• U.S. wheat exports are expected to regain a fraction of market share in the global wheat trade due to improved competitiveness in the Middle East, Asia, and South America.
• U.S. wheat trade is projected to be nearly unchanged from the previous month, at 182.2 million tons.
• Recent sales to Iraq, Japan, Morocco, and Ethiopia support the 25-million-bushel increase in all-wheat exports.
• Flour production data through the first four months of the 2017/18 marketing year indicates that food use is on track to meet the 950 million bushel projection.
• Domestic use of wheat is unchanged after the NASS report, with food use remaining stable and feed and residual use slightly adjusted.

Summary of Changes

Additional Highlights

• U.S. exports are now 26.5 million tons on a trade-year basis, up 500,000 tons due to increased sales to Iraq.
• U.S. exports to Iraq are the first since the 2011/12 marketing year, with a significant volume shipped.
• Hard red winter wheat production is lower than the previous year, but exports are expected to increase.
• White wheat exports are up by 5 million bushels, contributing to the overall increase in U.S. wheat exports.
• Feed use in Vietnam is reduced due to lower demand for live pigs from China.
• India has raised its wheat import duty to 20% to protect domestic farmers.

Contact and Subscription Information

• Jennifer Bond (Domestic): jkbond@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5326

• Olga Liefert (International): oliefert@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5155

• Beverly Payton (Web Publishing): bpayton@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5165

• Subscribe to ERS e-newsletters for timely updates.

• Printed copies can be ordered from the USDA Order Desk at 1-800-363-2068 (specify issue number).

Data Sources

• Wheat Data: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/
• Wheat Chart Gallery: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-chartgallery.aspx
• Previous Wheat Outlook Reports: Mann Library Wheat Outlook Page
• WASDE Reports: Mann Library WASDE Page
• Grain Circular: https://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/grain-and-feed
• ERS Wheat Topic Page: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat.aspx

Legal Information

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities based on race, color, national origin, age, disability, and other protected categories. For more information or to file a complaint, contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 or visit the USDA Civil Rights website.