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报告摘要

Wheat Outlook Summary - December 2021

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global wheat market conditions for the 2021/22 marketing year, focusing on supply, demand, export and import trends, and the impact of global food price changes and trade policies.

U.S. Wheat Outlook

Export Trends

U.S. wheat exports in October 2021 dropped to 46 million bushels, the smallest monthly total in over 30 years.
Export sales and shipments remained weak in November, indicating a slow pace unlikely to improve soon.
All-wheat export forecast for 2021/22 was reduced by 20 million bushels to 840 million due to weak sales.
Hard Red Spring (HRS) exports were reduced by 10 million bushels to 205 million due to tight supplies and high prices.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports were also reduced by 10 million bushels to 350 million because of high prices and strong domestic demand.
HRS imports were reduced by 5 million bushels to 50 million, while other classes remained unchanged.
U.S. imports of HRS during June through October totaled 19 million bushels, representing 38% of the full marketing year projection, down from 24 million bushels in the same period in 2020.

Domestic Supply and Use

Season-average farm price for 2021/22 was raised to $7.05 per bushel, up $0.15 from the previous month, due to strong farmgate prices and expectations of continued price strength.
Ending stocks for 2021/22 are at 598 million bushels, the lowest level since 2013/14.
Total supply for 2021/22 is 2,601 million bushels, down 5% from the previous month.
Total use is 2,003 million bushels, also down 5% month-to-month.

Winter Wheat Planting and Conditions

Winter wheat planting was 96% complete as of November 22, slightly below the previous year and the 5-year average.
Winter wheat emergence was at 92%, similar to the previous year and above the 5-year average.
Drought conditions affect 53% of the winter wheat growing regions, impacting production and potentially other wheat classes.
Planting delays in some Eastern States due to wet weather affected soybean harvest and winter wheat planting.

Global Wheat Outlook

Production Adjustments

Global production for 2021/22 was increased by 2.6 million MT to 777.9 million due to higher-than-expected output in Australia, Russia, and Canada.
Australia is projected to have back-to-back record production years, with a near-record yield of 2.60 MT/ha.
Russia production increased by 1.0 million MT to 75.5 million, mainly due to higher winter wheat output.
Canada production was raised by 0.7 million MT to 21.7 million based on revised data.
Iran and Ethiopia saw downward revisions in production due to lower yields and harvest delays, respectively.

Consumption and Trade

Global consumption for 2021/22 is projected at 789.4 million MT, up 1.9 million MT from the previous estimate.
Feed and residual use increased by 2.0 million MT to 160.6 million, partially offset by a 0.5 million MT reduction in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use.
Global wheat trade is expected to reach a new record, with TY exports at 206.9 million MT and TY imports at 203.0 million MT.
Australia and the EU export forecasts were revised up due to higher domestic production.
India and Ukraine saw increased exports due to strong first-quarter shipments.
Iran imports increased by 1.5 million MT to 7.0 million despite rising export taxes in Russia.
Indonesia is expected to increase wheat imports as COVID restrictions ease.
China reduced imports by 0.5 million MT to 9.5 million due to a slow pace of purchases and reduced imports from France.

Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 278.2 million MT, up 2.4 million MT from November.
Major exporters' ending stocks increased, including Australia, Canada, EU, Russia, and the U.S., but remain the lowest since 2007/08.
Argentina ending stocks were reduced by 0.2 million MT to 2.3 million.

International Feature: Global Food Price and Policy Outlook

Food Price Trends

The global consumer food price index increased over 6% in 2020, with a slower rate of increase in 2021.
The FAO food price index (FFPI) is projected to reach 124.2 in 2021, the highest since 1975, and 25% higher than 2020.
The cereal price index increased 24%, slightly slower than the overall FFPI growth.
Oils price index is expected to grow 62%, the highest since at least 1990.
CFPI increases varied by region: Latin America and the Caribbean saw a 15% increase, while Brazil and Argentina saw 10% and 36% increases, respectively. Western and Middle Africa also experienced 13–15% increases, and Iran and Turkey saw 43% and 16% increases.

Trade Policy Impacts

Several countries implemented trade policies to manage rising food prices, including:
- Russia imposed wheat export taxes to limit exports and secure domestic supplies.
- Ukraine and Kazakhstan introduced wheat export limits to increase domestic stocks.
- Morocco suspended import duties on durum and common wheat.
- Pakistan expanded wheat purchases and banned wheat and flour exports.
- Turkey eliminated wheat import tariffs to combat high domestic prices.
These policies may distort global trade flows and affect market dynamics.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: U.S. all-wheat monthly exports, 2017/18–2021/22.
Figure 2: Drought conditions in winter wheat growing regions, December 2021.
Figure 3: Floating wheat export tax in Russia, June 2021–December 2021.
Figure 4: Major exporters' ending stocks, 2016/17–2021/22.
Figure 5: Year-over-year change in global consumer price index, 2001–2021.
Figure 6: Percent change in the consumer food price index from 2020 to 2021.

Table Highlights

Table 1: U.S. wheat supply and use at a glance for 2021/22.
Table 2: Wheat production changes for 2021/22.
Table 3: Summary of 2021/22 trade adjustments.
Table 4: Comparison of consumer food price indices in previous price spikes (2007–21).

Conclusion

The U.S. wheat market faces challenges in exports due to tight supplies and high prices, which make it uncompetitive in certain regions. Global wheat production is expected to reach a record, but consumption growth outpaces supply, leading to tighter stocks and higher prices. Trade policies in various countries aim to mitigate food price inflation, but may impact global trade flows. Drought conditions in key growing regions and delayed planting in some areas affect yield potential, while rising food prices continue to be a global concern, especially in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.