20151113-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_2015.11.13_22页_858kb

Wheat Outlook Summary (Nov. 13, 2015)

Core Content

The U.S. Wheat Outlook for the 2015/16 marketing year reflects a continued decline in U.S. wheat exports and an increase in ending stocks, signaling a shift in global wheat dynamics. The report highlights the impact of market conditions, production trends, and trade policies on U.S. and international wheat markets.

Main Points

U.S. Wheat Export Projections

• Export forecast for 2015/16 is 800 million bushels, a 50 million bushel decrease from the October forecast.
• This is the lowest export projection since 1971/72, and 54.3 million bushels less than the 2014/15 marketing year.
• The U.S. dollar's strength and abundant competitor supplies are key factors reducing U.S. competitiveness in global wheat trade.
• Export sales remain lower than a year ago, with a seasonal average pace of sales slowing earlier than usual.

Ending Stocks

• Ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 911 million bushels, the highest since 2009/10, and 158 million bushels more than the previous marketing year.
• The midpoint all-wheat price remains at $5.00 per bushel, with the price range narrowed by 5 cents to $4.80 to $5.20 per bushel.
• Domestic use is projected to remain stable, with food use at 967 million bushels and seed use at 72 million bushels.

Winter Wheat Production

• Winter wheat production for 2015 is 1,370 million bushels, unchanged from October but 7 million bushels less than 2014.
• Planted and harvested areas are also unchanged from the August projection.
• Harvested area is 32.3 million acres, 42,000 acres less than the previous year, due to a higher harvest-to-planted ratio.
• Planted area for 2015 is 3 million acres less than 2014.

Winter Wheat by Class

• Hard red winter (HRW) production is 827 million bushels, up 88 million bushels from the previous year.
• Soft red winter (SRW) production is 359 million bushels, down 95 million bushels from the previous year.
• White winter wheat production is 184 million bushels, up 0.2 million bushels from the previous year.

Spring Wheat Production

• Hard red spring (HRS) production is 564 million bushels, up nearly 9 million bushels from 2014.
• White spring wheat production is 34.9 million bushels, down 4.5 million bushels from 2014.
• Durum wheat production is 82 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from the previous year.
• Desert durum production in California and Arizona is 20.3 million bushels, nearly double the 2014 crop.

International Wheat Outlook

• Global wheat production for 2015/16 is 733.0 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from the previous month.
• EU wheat production is revised upward, with major increases in UK (16.1 million tons), Germany (26.5 million tons), and France (42.8 million tons).
• Australian wheat production is down 1.0 million tons to 26.0 million tons, due to dryness and heat.
• Russian wheat production is down 0.5 million tons to 60.5 million tons, and Egypt is down 0.3 million tons to 8.1 million tons.

Global Wheat Use and Stocks

• Global wheat use is projected to be 717.4 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous month.
• Feed and residual use is up 0.9 million tons globally, with notable increases in EU, Thailand, and Australia.
• Foreign ending stocks are down 2.5 million tons to 202.5 million tons, while global stocks are down 1.2 million tons due to higher U.S. stocks.
• Chinese stocks are down 2.5 million tons, driven by increased domestic use and reduced imports.

Key Information

• The U.S. continues to lose market share in global wheat trade, with exports projected at 13.7%, the lowest in USDA history.
• EU is becoming a major player in global wheat trade, with export projections up and market share increasing.
• Canadian wheat exports are up 1.0 million tons to 20.5 million tons, supported by strong shipments and a weaker Canadian dollar.
• Brazilian wheat exports are up 0.5 million tons to 0.8 million tons, with government subsidies helping feed-quality wheat reach Bangladesh and Vietnam.
• Indian wheat exports are up 0.5 million tons, but imports are restricted due to high import duties and domestic price support.
• New wheat grain codes have been introduced by the Census Bureau, affecting trade data for the years 2012–2014.

Summary Table

Additional Notes

• Wheat Chart Gallery will be updated on Nov. 13, 2015.
• Next release is scheduled for Dec. 11, 2015.
• USDA provides data and publications on its website, including Wheat Monthly Tables and Wheat Chart Gallery.
• Subscription options are available for ERS e-mail notifications and printed copies of newsletters.
• Contact information is provided for domestic and international inquiries.