20150915-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_22页_402kb

Summary of Wheat Outlook (WHS-15i, Sept. 15, 2015)

Core Content

The Wheat Outlook report by the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an analysis of U.S. and global wheat production, use, and trade for the marketing year 2015/16. It highlights the effects of increased global production, currency fluctuations, and market dynamics on U.S. export prospects and domestic prices.

Main Points

U.S. Export Prospects and Domestic Prices

• U.S. wheat exports for 2015/16 are forecast at 900 million bushels, a 25 million bushel decrease from the previous month.
• The strong U.S. dollar and increased production in competitor countries (EU, Russia, Australia) are reducing the competitiveness of U.S. wheat in global markets.
• The season-average farm price is expected to drop by 10 cents to $5.00 per bushel, due to increased domestic stocks and lower export demand.
• Ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 875 million bushels, the largest since 2009/10.

Domestic Outlook

• Total use for 2015/16 is up 126 million bushels from 2014/15, driven by increased consumption with population growth.
• Food use is 967 million bushels, feed and residual use is 200 million bushels.
• Exports are down 25 million bushels from August, and ending stocks are up 122 million bushels from 2014/15.

Wheat Production by Class

• Hard red winter (HRW) production is 856 million bushels, up 118 million bushels from 2014 due to increased harvested area and higher yields.
• Soft red winter (SRW) production is 389 million bushels, down 66 million bushels from 2014 due to reduced production and lower yields.
• White winter wheat production is 193 million bushels, up 9 million bushels from 2014.
• Hard red spring (HRS) production is 576 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2014.
• White spring wheat production is 45.0 million bushels, up 5.5 million bushels from 2014.
• Durum wheat production is 77 million bushels, up 24 million bushels from 2014.

International Outlook

• World wheat production for 2015/16 is forecast at 731.6 million tons, up 5.1 million tons from the previous month, and 6.4 million tons above the 2014/15 record.
• EU wheat production is up 6.3 million tons to 154.1 million, with France leading the increase to a record 42.5 million tons.
• Ukraine wheat production is up 1.0 million tons to 26.5 million tons, and Russia is up 1.0 million tons to 61.0 million tons.
• Canada wheat production is down 1.5 million tons to 25.0 million tons, affected by heat and dryness.
• India wheat production is down 1.1 million tons to 88.9 million tons, due to untimely rains and hailstorms.
• Brazil wheat production is down 0.5 million tons to 6.0 million tons, and Argentina is down 0.1 million tons to 11.0 million tons.
• Mongolia wheat production is down 0.2 million tons to 0.3 million tons, the lowest since 2008/09.
• World wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 226.6 million tons, the highest in 15 years, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.6%.

Trade and Price Projections

• All-wheat season average price is projected to drop by 10 cents to $5.00 per bushel, with a price range of $4.65 to $5.35.
• EU and Ukrainian exports are on the rise, while U.S. exports are expected to decline.
• World wheat trade for 2015/16 is projected at 158.4 million tons, up 1.5 million tons.
• Russian wheat exports are expected to remain stable, but uncertainty from export taxes and currency fluctuations is affecting trade.

Key Information

• U.S. export prospects are weakened due to the strong dollar and increased production in competing countries.
• Domestic prices are under downward pressure due to increased stocks and lower export demand.
• Global production is record high, with EU and Ukraine leading the increase.
• World wheat supplies are up sharply, with stocks-to-use ratio at a 15-year high.
• New wheat trade codes have been introduced by the U.S. Census Bureau, affecting trade data classification.
• Import adjustments have been made for several countries, including Ukraine, Russia, and Canada, due to updated production data.
• U.S. wheat exports are expected to be lower than the 5-year average, but higher than the 2014/15 level.
• Feed use is increasing globally, particularly in the EU and Russia, as corn prices rise and wheat becomes more competitive.
• U.S. wheat exports are projected to be down 25 million bushels or 0.7 million tons, due to global competition and lower quality.

Additional Notes

• The ERS provides data and charts for further analysis, including supply and disappearance changes.
• Subscription options are available for email notifications and printed copies of the report.
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture ensures non-discrimination in its programs and activities.