20250629-国泰期货-聚酯数据周报_52页_5mb

Summary of Guotai Junan Futures Poly酯 Market Analysis: 2025-06-29

分析师: He Xiaoqin (高级分析师) and Qian Jiayin (联系人).
日期: June 29, 2025.

Market Outlook

BarrequestData: K地址ipion汇总 and detailed 分析: Demand entered淡季 with weakness in终端consum (纺织/服装 retailers declining by 3.3% YoY), supply in production (聚酯环节) is expected to moderate amid planned capacity reductions. Overall, the market presents a tight balance with回落 into surplus by July QHTA-JUNE29. Valuations are尋找接近 fair but with pressures from rising inventories.

对二甲苯 (PX)

• Supplies继续收缩 due to scheduled shutdowns (Z 树花炼化,福海创,Tian 石化 in July), maintaining去库格局, supporting prices with firm月差 following OPEC and China-Saudi博弈.
• Demand进入淡季, prices reacted strongly, urging a不追空 approach. Supply outlook remains卡紧 with 月差 positive, indicating potential逢低多opportunities in PX and related derivatives.
• Monthly spread is widening due to price 权衡 factors.

乙二醇 (MEG)

• Supply tightness is easing with reduced drawingdown exports, competition in corners supports shorter-term反弹. Cost factors improved, signaling稳定震荡precedence.
• Import growth stabilized; although PX demand contracts later in the month, prices are favored for逢高適合平仓 under inventory pressures.

聚酯/涤纶纤维 (PTA/Polyester Fiber)

• Short to medium term,产能 plans show potential decreases due to 装置检修 announcements for万凯60 and逸盛110吨 capacity cuts by July/august. Inventories could turn负套 by 9月, with 短丝 and bottle film sectors showing scheduled reductions.
• PTA inventory may surge in 达也, affecting基差 structure.出口 numbers are flat, impacting market 流动性.

终端: 纺织/服装

• Weaker demand from retail segments (เฉพาะโซน Garmisch) reflection unsustainable开工率 and inventory buildup in 纺织.
  -高库存 amid低下游订单 puts pressure on sectors, 持续选择观望 or limited 空 strategies respecting supply-demand均衡.

长期建议

库存压力 likely to persist, valuation consideration appropriate for proactive positions based on sector specifics.

Disclaimer

This content represents分析perspectives as of date provided and is based on sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Market responsiveness notable, investment decision should rely on professional judgment and include individual risk assessment.

End Note