IMF-警惕货币增长与通货膨胀的关系（英）-2023.6-18页_1mb

The IMF working paper "A Note of Caution on the Relation between Money Growth and Inflation," authored by Helge Berger, Sune Karlsson, and Pär Österholm, analyzes the bivariate relationship between money growth and inflation using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. The study, based on data from 1971Q1 to 2022Q4 for the euro area and 1961Q1 to 2022Q4 for the United States, finds that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s and intensified after 2020. Results show a correlation between time variation and inflation trends, with the maximum impact of money growth on inflation increasing at higher levels of trend inflation. These findings challenge the assumption of a simple, time-invariant relationship and emphasize the need for time-varying models in forecasting and monetary policy analysis.