IMF-通货膨胀对公共财政的影响（英）-2023.5-24页_961kb

The study examines the impact of inflation on public finances using empirical methods, finding that inflation shocks temporarily improve fiscal balances due to faster nominal revenue growth compared to expenditures. Inflation also reduces debt-to-GDP ratios through both primary balance improvements and the nominal GDP denominator effect. However, debt reduction only occurs with unexpected inflation spikes, not anticipated increases. Using instrumental variables and separating surprise from expected inflation, the research shows that anticipated inflation does not lower debt, while nominal revenues expand with inflation faster than expenditures initially. The findings emphasize that sudden inflation can help reduce deficits and debt but is not a sustainable strategy, especially if expectations are managed. Long-term outcomes depend on factors like debt structure and indexation mechanisms.