IMF-了解阿富汗的通货膨胀动态（英）-2025_21页_831kb

IMF Working Paper Summary

• Introduction:

  • Afghanistan has experienced three periods of deflation in the past two decades, with the latest being the longest (April 2023 to October 2024), characterized by weak domestic demand, currency appreciation, and falling international commodity prices.
  • Inflation is primarily driven by food prices (especially bread and cereal), domestic factors (e.g., money supply), and external factors (e.g., exchange rate, international commodity prices).
  • Fragile states like Afghanistan are more vulnerable to external shocks, making price stability challenging.

• Analysis:

  • Data & Methods:
    Used quarterly data (2006Q4–2023Q4) with ARDL and ECM models to analyze both domestic (money supply, temperature) and external factors (international commodity prices, exchange rate, grants).
    Findings:
    • Long Run: Exchange rate is the primary inflation driver due to reliance on imports and foreign aid. Money supply and international commodity prices are next, with grants playing a limited role.
    • Short Run: Inflation is persistent; broad money supply has a stronger impact on inflation than external factors. The economy shows rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium, except during the 2023 deflation episode.
  • Key Results:
    • Inflation is highly sensitive to exchange rates (1% depreciation → ~0.5% price increase).
    • Food inflation dominates overall inflation dynamics.
    • The economy’s dollarization (≈60% foreign deposits in 2023/24) amplifies exchange rate effects.

• Conclusion & Recommendations:

  • Policies should focus on stabilizing the exchange rate, controlling money supply growth, and diversifying imports to reduce external vulnerability.
  • Further research could incorporate output gaps, fiscal indicators, and improve data availability for comprehensive analysis.