IMF-从未有过不同：财政政策冲击与通货膨胀（英）-2023.5-37页_2mb

Summary of "It's Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation"

This paper, presented by Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin in May 2023, analyzes the impact of fiscal policy shocks on inflation using a large panel dataset of 139 countries from 1970 to 2021. The study employs the local projection method to estimate impulse response functions, focusing on the deterioration of budget balances as a key measure.

• Key Findings: Fiscal shocks consistently increase consumer price inflation. A one-standard-deviation deterioration in the overall or primary budget balance leads to a significant rise in headline inflation—0.56 percentage points in the short run—for developing countries. The effect is amplified in core inflation (excluding food and energy) and persists in nations with limited fiscal space or during economic expansions. Developing economies, such as emerging markets and low-income countries, experience more pronounced impacts compared to advanced economies.

• Influencing Factors: The inflation response varies based on fiscal space (debt-to-GDP ratio), business cycle conditions, exchange rate regimes, and monetary/fiscal policy frameworks. Flexible exchange rates and inflation-targeting policies reduce inflation persistence, while rule-based fiscal rules enhance resilience. Commodity-exporting countries face greater inflation volatility due to price sensitivity.

• Policy Implications: The study underscores the importance of fiscal policy as a tool for macroeconomic stability but advocates for caution in its use, emphasizing that effects depend heavily on fiscal space and economic conditions. It recommends prioritizing flexible exchange rates and rule-based policies to mitigate inflationary risks. Robustness checks using narrative approaches and forecast errors confirm the findings.

• Conclusion: Fiscal policy shocks significantly influence inflation dynamics, but their magnitude and persistence are context-dependent. Addressing fiscal space and policy credibility is crucial for managing inflation risks, especially in response to global shocks like pandemics and supply disruptions.