世界银行-输给通货膨胀_揭开通货膨胀对家庭的不平等价格效应（英）-2024.12_17页_751kb

Losing to Inflation: Unmasking the Unequal Price Effect of Inflation across Households

1. Introduction

• Inflation disproportionately affects poor households due to their higher consumption of food, which constitutes a large portion of their budget.
• Poor households face higher effective inflation rates because they cannot adjust their spending or savings when prices rise.
• The study focuses on Pakistan's context, examining how inflation impacts different income groups.

2. Data and Methodology

• Data Sources:
  • Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  • Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2018–19 for income distribution.
• Methodology:
  • Decile-specific inflation rates calculated by combining CPI data with household expenditure patterns.
  • Formula for household-level inflation:
    $\pi_{h,t} = \sum_{c=1}^{12} s_{c,h} \cdot \pi_{c,t}$
    where $s_{c,h}$ is the share of category $c$ in household $h$'s budget, and $\pi_{c,t}$ is the year-on-year inflation for category $c$.

3. Key Findings

3.1 Inflation Disparities

• The poorest households (Decile 1) experienced one percentage point higher inflation (avg. 12%) than the richest (Decile 10, avg. 11%) between Nov 2018 and May 2022.
• The maximum disparity was 3.50 percentage points in July 2020.

3.2 Impact by Consumption Category

• Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages:
  • Accounts for 60–62% of inflation for the poorest households.
  • Only 36–43% for the richest.
• Housing, Utilities, and Transport:
  • Contributions increase with income. For Decile 10, these categories explain one-fourth or more of overall inflation.

3.3 Spatial and Economic Factors

• Rural areas experience higher inflation due to price disparities.
• During COVID-19, the energy crisis widened inflation gaps between urban and rural areas.

4. Policy Recommendations

1. Targeted Subsidies:
   • Replace regressive general subsidies with progressive social transfers, especially for food items consumed by the poor.
2. Central Bank Inflation Targets:
   • Include decile-disaggregated inflation in monetary policy frameworks.
3. Improved Data Collection:
   • Expand market coverage for Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and sensitive price indices to capture local inflation variations.
4. Social Protection Programs:
   • Enhance programs like the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) with regular indexation to account for differential inflation.

5. Conclusion

• Inflation has detrimental effects on human development through reduced consumption and savings among poor households.
• Addressing inflation inequality requires policy adjustments that consider income-specific impacts and promote inclusive economic growth.