IMF-保加利亚的通货膨胀动态：政策的作用（英）-2023.10-32页_1mb
报告摘要
- Background: Bulgaria's inflation surged in 2022, driven by global supply-side shocks, country-specific factors, and insufficient policy responses.
- Methodology: The study employed principal component analysis to assess common and country-specific inflation drivers, Phillips curve estimation to examine persistence, and VAR models to quantify the roles of monetary and fiscal policies.
- Key Findings: Bulgaria's inflation is highly persistent, with core inflation driven by supply shocks and labor market dynamics. ECB monetary tightening was insufficient due to weak transmission, and fiscal policy, while supporting post-COVID recovery, contributed significantly to inflation.
- Policy Implications: Strengthened fiscal discipline, improved monetary policy transmission, and careful policy calibration are crucial for managing inflation risks, especially amid euro area convergence aspirations.
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