20241127-开源证券-10月企业利润数据点评_汽车接棒家电_预计11月社零进一步修复_6页_625kb

报告摘要

01 利润指标
- 2024年1-10月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比下降43%，较前值改进；营业收入累计同比增长19%。
02 三因素影响
- 工业企业利润增速受三因子共同影响：1) 工业增加值贡献49%，继续保持增长；2) PPI对利润率负贡献扩大；3) 利润率同比下滑是最大拖累项。
- 人民币升值被认为是利润率下滑的主要变量之一，2023年同期至9、10月期间，人民币中间价升值幅度分别为15%与10%。
03 行业分组数据
- 上游采掘业利润占比3.36%，同比下降0.3个百分点；中游设备制造业利润占比3.16%，上升0.1个百分点；下游消费制造行业维持2.63%，公用事业行业占比0.95%，略有上升。
- 中游设备制造业利润累计同比获改善，较前值提升0.8%，主要受益于“两新”政策的持续发力。
04 库存和销售动态
- 截至10月，名义与实际工业库存分别下降0.7、0.6个百分点。
- 预计11月汽车消费将接力家电，社零累计同比或上行至37%。10月汽车零售均价较2023年11月下降7.7%，零售销量同比27%，生产批发热潮进一步推进。

Industrial Profit Performance
- Industrial profit for July-November 2024 dropped by 43% cumulatively through 10 months, but showed improvement compared to prior data.
- Revenue reported 19% growth, consistent with market projections.
Three-Factor Analysis
- Production Factors: Output continued to grow marginally.
- Price Factors: PPI saw an increased negative impact on profits.
- Profit Margins: Suffered the largest decline, exacerbated by RMB appreciation, which reached 15% and 10% against 2023 levels in September and October.
Industry Breakdown
- Upstream Mining Sector: 3.36% share, slight decline.
- Midstream Equipment: 3.16% gain, showing signs of recovery.
- Downstream Manufacturing: No notable change.
- Public Utilities: 0.95% growth, slight increase.
Inventory and Sales Dynamics
- By October, inventory levels saw nominal declines of 0.7 percentage points.
- November is expected to increase with auto sales following the surge in home appliance purchases.