20230619-国盛证券-2023年风光储中期策略_海风波澜壮阔_光储蓄势待发_53页_2mb

Wind Power Overview

Wind power continues to exhibit high growth, with key segments focusing on both onshore and offshore developments. Onshore wind saw substantial installation in 2023, with 142 GW added in the first four months, marking a 48% year-over-year increase. Strong bidding and award activity further signals sustained demand, driven by competitive allocation processes and increased use in combined with hydrogen production projects. Offshore wind is emerging as a primary growth area, with the sector entering its first high-growth year. Factors include accelerated demand from Europe and domestic expansion, with floating wind technology poised for broader adoption, expected to mature commercially and see increased market activity in the "十五五" period. The supply chain benefits from rising overseas orders for components like cables and piles, enhancing international competitiveness. Based on these dynamics, recommended stocks include those in the base环节, such as Tian顺风能, and key players like Hai力风电. For offshore-specific segments, focus on turbines (e.g., Tai胜风能, Da金重工), cables (e.g., Dong方电缆), and foundational elements like Jiuyue Shares for cast forgings. Material price declines are stabilizing profit margins, creating upside.

Solar Power Dynamics

Solar power demonstrates robust demand exceeding expectations, with first-quarter installations reaching 4831 GW, representing an 186% year-over-year jump. This growth is fueled by both国内市场 and overseas markets, particularly through policies like the US IRA, which provide favorable incentives. Internationally, regions such as Europe anticipate a 60% monthly growth in installations. The industry is entering a price-bottoming phase, with raw material costs like polysilicon declining sharply to unders 100 Yuan/kg. This environment supports N-type technology advancements, targeting more efficient photovoltaic systems. Key recommendations include companies in the N-type supply chain, such as Jingke Energy, Jingao Tech, and others, with specific focus on areas experiencing shortages, like POE, silver paste, and quartz sand segments. Notable stocks to watch include隆基Green Energy for ground-based电站 deployment.

Energy Storage Analysis

Energy storage is poised for significant expansion with declining lithium carbonate prices stimulating large-scale projects. In China, cumulative system and EPC awards in the first five months reached over 963 GWh, indicating strong market momentum. Globally, policies like the US IRA enhance economic viability, promoting broad adoption. Grid-scale energy storage continues to drive demand from地面电站, while commercial and residential segments offer emerging opportunities, especially where favorable pricing and peak demand conditions exist. The advent of electric vehicle-to-grid integration further boost 工商业需求, and exports by 充电桩 supply chains create additional revenue streams. Recommendations target Shenệu功率 sources like 东方日升 for the US market and firms with overseas expertise, such as 科华Data for commercial applications. Residential segments in Europe and Africa present potential, given persistent demand drivers.

Broader Market Recommendations and Risks

Strong performance is forecast across the sector, with wind and solar power maintaining high growth trajectories. Specific stock suggestions emphasize cyclical players like 大金重工 and 海缆 leaders. Key themes include material cost declines supporting supply chain profitability. However, risks involve underperformance in offshore wind capacity, delays in floating wind adoption, or inaccuracies in market data assumptions. Overall market exposure in renewable energy remains elevated, requiring careful analysis of weather-related disruptions and global demand shifts.