20240422-国联证券-中国宏桥-01378.HK-单吨盈利提升叠加产量增长_业绩有望大幅增长_3页_341kb

Chinese Summary

公司报告│港股-中国宏桥年报点评

行业：有色金属/工业金属
投资评级：买入（维持）
目标价格：168.8港元

核心要点

1. 业绩表现亮眼

• 2023年营业收入同比增长146%，归母净利润增长3170%，基本每股收益达1.21元。
• 公司拟每股派发现金红利0.29港元，体现了较强的现金分红能力。

2. 收入增长主要依赖销量提升

• 2023年电解铝销量同比增长4%，氧化铝销量增长25%成为主要增长来源。
• 不过产品均价普遍下降：铝合金产品价格同比下降6.4%，氧化铝价格下降8%。

3. 利润增长归因于成本控制与费用优化

• 直接成本下降：主要原材料如阳极和动力煤价格下跌，助力归母净利润大幅增长。
• 费用率优化：管理费用率同比下降0.8个百分点，销售净利率提升190个基点至9.35%。

4. 2024年业绩展望向好

• 主要产品电解铝和氧化铝价格较2023年上涨18%和14.7%，而原材料成本下降幅度更大（阳极下降16.6%，动力煤下降6.5%）。
• 公司回购股份后持股比例增至98.56%，预计权益产量提升，增强长期盈利能力和股价弹性。

5. 财务预测与估值

• 预计2024-2026年营收增速分别为-3.4%、1%、1%，净利润增速逐步放缓至45%、3%、1%。
• 维持2024年87倍PE估值，目标价168.8港元，维持“买入”评级。
• 关键财务指标：毛利率15.7%，净利率9.35%，ROE达124.2%，负债率降至46.96%。

风险提示

• 铝产品价格下跌、原材料成本上升、产量不及预期、汇率波动风险。

English Summary

Company Report | Hong Kong Equities - China Resources Macro Analysis

Key Highlights

1. Excellent 2023 Performance

   • Revenue increased by 146% YoY to CNY 133.6 billion, Net Profit attributable to shareholders surged by 3,170% to RMB 114.6 billion.
   • Basic EPS reached RMB 1.21, with a proposal to distribute RMB 0.29 cash dividends per share.

2. Revenue Growth Driven by Volume Expansion

   • Aluminum segment sales volume increased 4%, while alumina sales jumped 25%.
   • However, product prices declined: Aluminum alloy prices dropped 6.4% (Yoy), alumina prices fell 8%.

3. Profit Improvement via Cost Control and Efficiency

   • Lower raw material costs (e.g., carbon anode, coal prices declined significantly) boosted profitability.
   • Realized margin (rmarg) for aluminum products improved by 39 percentage points to 17.4%.
   • Management expenses decreased by 0.8 ppts, driving sales net margin up to 9.35%.

4. Outlook for 2024

   • Aluminum and alumina prices are expected to rise 18% and 14.7% (YoY), while raw material costs fell more sharply (anode down 16.6%, coal down 6.5%).
   • The share buyback (increasing stake to 98.56%) is poised to expand production capacity, boosting long-term value.

5. Financial Projections & Valuation

   • Forecast: Revenue growth -3.4% (2024E), 1% (2025E), 1% (2026E). Net profit growth: 45% (2024E), 3% (2025E), 1% (2026E).
   • Target price: HKD 168.8 (based on HR rating: 87x FY24 PE).
   • Key metrics (2023): Gross margin 15.7%, Net margin 9.35%, ROE 124.2%, D/E ratio 0.4696.

Risk Factors

• Declining alumina/aluminum prices, rising raw material costs, output shortfall, exchange rate volatility.