20240329-广发期货-铁矿石二季度行情展望_钢材高库存和低产量抑制铁矿石需求_价格缺乏向上弹性_30页_3mb

Iron Ore Q2 Outlook Summary

Demand for iron ore remains weak due to low steel mill production. Steel output in the first three months decreased 26% year-on-year, and post-festival resumption is slow, with iron water production averaging 222,000 tons per day. High inventory and low profits, exacerbated by a 500 yuan/t drop in steel prices, hinder demand and limit upward price elasticity. The 45-port inventory reached 145 million tons, the second highest on record, reflecting sluggish demand from construction and real estate sectors.

Supply increased as import ore shipments rose 73% year-on-year in the first two months, with global and Chinese port arrivals growing. However, the supply growth is expected to moderate as shipping volumes decline. Non-mainstream ore supplies rose significantly, and global shipments showed slight improvement in late March.

Prices declined notably in March, falling from 900 to 780 yuan/t for the May contract, driven by excess supply and inventory buildup. The outlook is for continued bearish market, with prices oscillating weakly unless demand improves. Key risks include potential profit recovery and macro policies, but the immediate focus is on supporting levels.

Operational strategy favors short-side positions with bias for selling, targeting 650-700 yuan/t support. Monitor spread opportunities, such as the 5-9 forward curve, which narrowed to around 32 yuan/t. Focus on fundamentals, with ongoing concerns over high steel inventory delaying any price upside.

Disclaimer: This summary is based on the provided report and is for reference only.